[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 230604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN BETWEEN A COLD FRONT AND FLORIDA. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE
FORECAST IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT.

A GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT IS ALONG 25N81W 23N82W. EXPECT GALE-
FORCE WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 12
FEET TO 15 FEET FROM 26N TO 29N BETWEEN 85W AND 90W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT IS ALONG 31N79W 27N80W. EXPECT
SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM
9 FEET TO 12 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W.

THE 12-HOUR FORECAST FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN CONSISTS OF A COLD
FRONT FROM 31N71W TO 27N75W TO 22N77W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE WEST-
TO-NORTHWEST AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 11 FEET TO 17 FEET
TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. ANOTHER AREA OF
DEVELOPING GALE-FORCE WINDS CONSISTS OF SOUTHEAST-TO-SOUTH GALE-
FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 FEET TO 12 FEET TO
THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECASTS...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...AND MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...
FOR MORE DETAILS.

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2...FOR GALE-FORCE WINDS THAT ARE FORECAST FOR
THE AREA THAT IS CALLED...IRVING.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHERN
LIBERIA NEAR 05N08W TO 03N11W AND 02N14W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 02N14W TO 03N28W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 37W...TO THE
COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02S43W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 05N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 08W AND 21W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE FROM 13N17W TO
05N30W TO 04N51W.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA AND CUBA...
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING
THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS DIGGING THROUGH THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N78W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA JUST TO
THE EAST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
NORTHWESTERN CUBA...INTO BELIZE. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS WITHIN
90 NM TO 120 NM TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT FROM 17N NORTHWARD.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY EVERYWHERE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 23N75W IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BEYOND
32N70W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
23N75W 19N80W 16N87W...FROM THE BAHAMAS TO HONDURAS.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO THE
COASTAL PLAINS OF MEXICO...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

IFR CONDITIONS...KSPR.

MVFR CONDITIONS...KVQT...KGRY...KEIR...KIPN...KIKT...KVOA...
KVKY...KMIS...AND KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...VFR/NO CEILINGS. LOUISIANA...MVFR AT PORT FOURCHON AND
BOOTHVILLE...AND AT THE NEW ORLEANS DOWNTOWN AIRPORT. FROM
MISSISSIPPI TO ALABAMA TO PERRY FLORIDA...MVFR CONDITIONS.
THE REST OF FLORIDA...RAIN IS BEING REPORTED AT THE TAMPA
EXECUTIVE AIRPORT.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. THIS WIND FLOW IS PART OF A BROADER ANTICYCLONIC WIND
REGIME THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO THE SOUTH OF 16N84W 25N64W 18N40W.

600 MB TO 800 MB WIND FLOW...EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 06N TO 15N BETWEEN 40W AND
63W...FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 15N TO 22N BETWEEN 64W AND 74W...FROM THE SOUTHWEST
MOVING THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND CYCLONIC COVERING THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 17N TO CUBA
BETWEEN 78W AND 85W.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN
AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.
THIS WIND FLOW IS PART OF A LARGE-SCALE AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW THAT SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. 600 MB TO 800 MB
SOUTHEAST-TO-SOUTH WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND A VFR CEILING AT 23/0200 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING IN BARAHONA AT 23/0000 UTC. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA AND
PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTIAGO
AND IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START THE TWO-DAY FORECAST PERIOD IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF PANAMA AND TO THE WEST OF
COLOMBIA. SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING
DAY ONE. THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FROM
DAY ONE TO DAY TWO. THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST DURING DAY TWO. A TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN DURING DAY ONE. EXPECT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST
ORIENTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA DURING DAY
TWO. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY
TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA
WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...AND A TROUGH THAT IS APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. THE TROUGH REACHES THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THEN IT MOVES TO THE NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA BY THE END OF DAY TWO. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW
ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N39W TO 25N46W 23N55W AND 22N66W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 24N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 27W AND 40W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 40W AND 70W.

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N47W TO 29N55W TO 27N63W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N36W 26N45W 26N60W 28N69W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SENEGAL TO
08N25W 07N40W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITHIN 240 NM TO 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
13N17W 07N27W 06N44W 07N55W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N16W TO 27N23W 23N36W 20N49W TO
18N60W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
EVERYWHERE THAT IS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE 31N39W-TO-
25N46W 23N55W 22N66W SURFACE TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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