[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211757
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA COASTS LATER TODAY AND BRING GALE FORCE NW TO N WINDS
OVER THE WESTERN GULF BEGINNING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FREQUENT
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE FORECAST N OF 21N...WITH MORE PERSISTENT
GALE FORCE WINDS S OF 21N W OF 95W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO
05N20W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 02N30W TO
02S36W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 11N E OF
20W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 200 NM OF
THE ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US SUPPORTS A DEVELOPING STORM
SYSTEM OVER TEXAS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
THE N CENTRAL GULF AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM N OF 26N BETWEEN 86W AND
93W. MODERATE TO FRESH RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE
BAHAMAS DOMINATES THE GULF BASIN. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER TEXAS WILL MOVE QUICKLY
OFFSHORE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA TONIGHT WITH CONVECTION SW OF THE
FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY NW OF THE
FRONT. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS TO THE EASTERN GULF BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE JET STREAM FLOW COVERS THE NW
CARIBBEAN. ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET STREAM SUPPORTS
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 20N. DRY AIR IN THE
MID TO UPPER LEVELS AND SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A NEARBY STATIONARY FRONT
OVER THE ATLC SUPPORTS SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ALSO COVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IN
THE TRADE WIND FLOW. MAINLY MODERATE TRADE WINDS COVER THE
CARIBBEAN TODAY...EXCEPT FRESH WINDS S OF 13N TO THE N OF THE
COLOMBIA COAST. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

...HISPANIOLA...

THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE ATLC EXTENDS TO THE
N COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SUPPORTING SHOWERS OVER MUCH
OF THE ISLAND TODAY EXCEPT DOWNSTREAM LOCATIONS OVER HAITI.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH A GRADUAL DRYING TREND INTO THE DAY FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1024 MB IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLC NEAR
29N79W. A COLD IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC ENTERING OUR AREA OF
DISCUSSION NEAR 31N38W TO 27N48W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A
STATIONARY FRONT TO 24N60W TO THE N COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC NEAR 19N70W. SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 250 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
EASTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLC. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER TX WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST...BRINGING
CONVECTION OVER THE SW NORTHERN ATLC BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL BECOME STATIONARY. THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO
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