[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 211203
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU JAN 21 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE 18-HOUR FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO CONSISTS OF A COLD
FRONT FROM 30N93.5W TO 27N94W TO 24N98W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE
NORTHWEST WINDS...FREQUENT GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS...AND SEA HEIGHTS
REACHING 10 FEET TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT. PLEASE READ THE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 09N13W TO 06N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N19W TO
04N23W AND 01N26W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 03N TO 10N BETWEEN 08W AND 20W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM TO 500 NM AWAY
FROM LAND...BETWEEN BRAZIL AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ISLANDS...FROM 20N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE
ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS
APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE
THAT RUNS FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO 20N97W ALONG THE
MEXICO COAST.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1024 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N79W...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
20N98W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN ABOUT 30 HOURS IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

IFR CONDITIONS...KDLP.

MVFR CONDITIONS...KMDJ...KVOA...KVKY.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...IFR IN MCALLEN AND WESLACO. MVFR ELSEWHERE IN THE LOWER
VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH. IFR IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST AREAS...
LIFR IN CORPUS CHRISTI. LIFR IN PORT LAVACA...BAY CITY...AND
ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON. IFR IN VICTORIA AND PALACIOS. LIFR AND
IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING
COMMUNITIES...IFR IN BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR. LOUISIANA...LIFR IN
NEW IBERIA AND PATTERSON AND GALLIANO...IFR IN LAFAYETTE.
RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...HAS BEEN REPORTED IN BOOTHVILLE DURING
THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS. LIFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING REPORTED
AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. MISSISSIPPI...LIFR IN GULFPORT AND
BILOXI. IFR IN PASCAGOULA. ALABAMA...IFR ALONG THE COAST...WITH
LIGHT RAIN IN MOBILE. FLORIDA...IFR AND LIGHT RAIN IN THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM DESTIN WESTWARD.

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N40W TO 30N43W 26N50W AND 25N54W. THE FRONT BECOMES
STATIONARY FROM 25N54W TO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF HISPANIOLA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N20W 24N50W...TO THE
EASTERN PARTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THEN
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM PUERTO RICO TO JAMAICA...TO THE
COASTAL SECTIONS OF EASTERN HONDURAS. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL
IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED AT 21/0000 UTC...ACCORDING
TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.02 IN BERMUDA.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE 32N40W-TO-HISPANIOLA FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. THIS WIND FLOW IS PART OF A BROADER ANTICYCLONIC WIND
REGIME THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...FROM 40W WESTWARD.

600 MB TO 800 MB EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 09N TO 20N BETWEEN 53W AND
64W...BECOMES NORTHEASTERLY IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 63W AND
77W. 600 MB TO 800 MB WIND FLOW IS FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM JAMAICA TO CENTRAL NICARAGUA. 600 MB
TO 800 MB IS ANTICYCLONIC FROM 12N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 80W AND
85W...FROM THE COASTAL WATERS TO PARTS OF NICARAGUA.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN
AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED
AT 21/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01KNHC...IS 0.03 IN
GUADELOUPE.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA. THIS WIND FLOW IS PART OF A LARGE-SCALE AREA OF
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ACROSS HISPANIOLA. A STATIONARY FRONT IS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF HISPANIOLA.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
IN BARAHONA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SANTO DOMINGO.
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE
IN LA ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING...
MVFR...IS IN SANTIAGO AND PUERTO PLATA. RAINSHOWERS WITH
THUNDER ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW WILL SPAN THE AREA. EXPECT WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FOR
DAY ONE...AND SOUTHWEST WIND FOR DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST
ORIENTED RIDGE. EXPECT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW FOR THE NEXT TWO
DAYS. HISPANIOLA WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE TO THE EAST...AND BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
THAT IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE TO THE SOUTH
OF AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CUBA RIDGE. EXPECT
NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW FOR DAY ONE. THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW
WILL CHANGE TO SOUTHERLY BY THE END OF DAY TWO AS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 40W WESTWARD.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL
SECTIONS OF MAURITANIA AND ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TO
08N35W TO 04N46W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO TO A 1024
MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N22W...TO 25N35W AND
20N61W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
EVERYWHERE THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE 32N40W-TO-HISPANIOLA
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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