[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171126
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN JAN 17 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF MEXICO STORM WARNING...A 997 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED
OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 29N85W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE
LOW TO 19N96W WHILE A WARM FRONT EXTENDS TO THE NE FROM THE LOW
TO 30N83W. A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM 28N84W TO 22N89W. LATEST
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICT WINDS RANGING
BETWEEN 40 TO 50 KT W OF THE COLD FRONT AND WITHIN 420 NM SW
QUADRANT OF THE LOW...WITH SEAS UP TO 17 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 22N-
30N W OF THE SQUALL LINE TO 93W...WINDS RANGE BETWEEN 30-40 KT
AND SEAS UP TO 15 FT. EXPECT FOR THE LOW TO MOVE QUICKLY TO THE
E ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND INTO THE W ATLANTIC. WITH
THIS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY EXTENDING OVER
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO RELATED TO THE 997 MB SURFACE LOW
DESCRIBED ABOVE. THESE FEATURES WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE
E...ENTERING THE W ATLANTIC THIS MORNING AND GENERATING GALE
FORCE WINDS N OF 27N AND W OF 77W...AND FROM 26N-27N W OF 78W.
SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 8-12 FT ACROSS THESE AREAS. EXPECT THESE
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO
THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE W COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 08N13W TO
06N17W...WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO THE COAST OF
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 03S40W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED
ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES AT THIS TIME.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE
SEE THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. A 997 MB SURFACE LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 29N85W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW
FROM THE LOW TO 19N96W WHILE A WARM FRONT EXTENDS TO THE NE FROM
THE LOW TO 30N83W. A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM 28N84W TO 22N89W.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PREVAIL ACROSS
THE E GULF MAINLY E OF 84W AFFECTING THE GULF WATERS AND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE
LOW TO CONTINUE MOVING QUICKLY E ENHANCING CONVECTION AND WINDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN FROM THE E ATLANTIC. SHALLOW MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED BY THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES
GENERATING QUICK-MOVING SHOWERS ACROSS THE BASIN. SCATTEROMETER
DATA DEPICTS AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS N OF COLOMBIA
MAINLY S OF 15N BETWEEN 71W-77W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR A COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM W CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS
ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE ISLAND AT THIS TIME WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE W CARIBBEAN
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH THIS...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE W PORTION OF THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NW ATLANTIC BY
THIS AFTERNOON AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY ALONG THE EASTERN
US COASTLINE MOVES E WITH A STRONG SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER THE
NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N85W. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE
FOR MORE DETAILS. TO THE E...ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
25N69W TO 32N54W WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N31W. OVER THE FAR E ATLANTIC...THE TAIL
END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 25N32W TO 32N20W. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED TO THE E OF THIS BOUNDARY MAINLY N OF 15N
BETWEEN 22W-33W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONTS TO
MOVE E WITH CONVECTION WHILE THE SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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