[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170551
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN JAN 17 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF MEXICO STORM WARNING...A 999 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED
OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 28N92W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE
LOW TO 24N98W WHILE ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS TO THE E AS
A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE LOW TO 28N90W THEN AS A COLD FRONT
FROM THAT POINT TO 30N85W. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICT WINDS RANGING BETWEEN 40 TO 55 KT
WITHIN 75 NM W SEMICIRCLE OF LOW WITH SEAS UP TO 11 FT.
ELSEWHERE FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 91W-96W...WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KT
ARE WITHIN 120 NM W SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS BETWEEN 8-12 FT. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SEE
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC...OR THE GULF OF MEXICO OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24...FOR MORE DETAILS.

ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY EXTENDING OVER
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND INTO THE W ATLANTIC RELATED TO THE 999 MB
SURFACE LOW DESCRIBED ABOVE. AS THE LOW AND FRONT CONTINUE
MOVING E...GALE FORCE WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES
AFFECTING THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 76W-
80W...WITH SEAS UP TO 12 FT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. SEE THE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE W COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 08N12W TO
06N15W...WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO THE COAST OF
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 03S39W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED
ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES AT THIS TIME.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE
SEE THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. A 999 MB SURFACE LOW IS
LOCATED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 28N92W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW
FROM THE LOW TO 24N98W WHILE ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS TO
THE E AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE LOW TO 28N90W THEN AS A
COLD FRONT FROM THAT POINT TO 30N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THESE FRONTS. A SQUALL LINE
ACCOMPANIES THE SURFACE LOW EXTENDING FROM 28N91W TO 23N92W.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PREVAIL ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF WATERS BETWEEN 85W-89W. SCATTERED LIGHT TO
MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS E OF THIS ACTIVITY AFFECTING NOT
ONLY THE GULF WATERS E OF 85W BUT ALSO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO CONTINUE
MOVING QUICKLY E ENHANCING CONVECTION AND STORM FORCE WINDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN FROM THE E ATLANTIC. SHALLOW MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED BY THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES
GENERATING QUICK-MOVING SHOWERS ACROSS THE BASIN. SCATTEROMETER
DATA DEPICTS AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS N OF COLOMBIA
MAINLY S OF 15N BETWEEN 71W-77W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR A COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM W CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS
ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE ISLAND AT THIS TIME WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE W CARIBBEAN
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH THIS...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE W PORTION OF THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NW ATLANTIC BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG THE EASTERN
US COASTLINE MOVES E WITH A STRONG SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER THE
NW GULF OF MEXICO AT THIS TIME. PLEASE SEE THE SECTION ABOVE FOR
MORE DETAILS. TO THE E...ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 24N76W
TO 32N58W WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 32N34W. OVER THE FAR E ATLANTIC...THE END OF A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 26N32W TO 32N21W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED TO THE E OF THIS BOUNDARY MAINLY N OF 20N BETWEEN 20W-
35W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONTS TO MOVE E WITH
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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