[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 132343
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED JAN 13 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
SUBTROPICAL STORM ALEX IS CENTERED NEAR 27.1N 30.8W AT 13/2100
UTC OR 785 NM SSW OF THE AZORES MOVING NE AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 26W-32W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N16W TO
07N23W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
07N23W TO 04N35W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 47W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS NOTED AT THIS TIME.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MOSTLY SATURATED AND CLOUD-LADEN SKIES PREVAIL OVER THE GULF
BASIN THIS EVENING AS WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO
ADVECT EAST PACIFIC MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
MEXICO...THE GULF...AND OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION. WHILE THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN...A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 30N FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N85W. GENERALLY GENTLE TO FRESH
EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING...HOWEVER A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF FROM 19N92W TO 24N97W
IS INDUCING N-NW WINDS W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS AS RIDGING
EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THE EXISTING RIDGE
ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND TEXAS IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EASTWARD
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE TROUGHING
AMPLIFIES AND CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ACROSS THE NW GULF. BOTH GFS
AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO WITH THE LOW
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOSTLY WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN THIS EVENING BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA AND NEARLY
ZONAL MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW NOTED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC. A
NARROW STRIP OF REMNANT MID-LEVEL ENERGY FOCUSED ALONG 30N-33N
BETWEEN 57W-82W SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL CUBA W-SW TO 20N87W THEN SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS NEAR 16N88W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN
THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND GENERALLY N OF 19N BETWEEN 80W-
90W...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
CUBA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LINGER WHILE WEAKENING ACROSS THE
NW CARIBBEAN WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ANY REMNANT ENERGY
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT PROVIDING FAIR SKIES FOR
MUCH OF THE BASIN THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT ON MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 12N61W TO 16N82W.

...HISPANIOLA...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THIS EVENING AS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
ISLAND. HOWEVER...A FEW LOW-TOPPED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH
ATLC REGION THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS TROUGHING
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N60W EXTENDING SW TO 25N73W THEN STATIONARY TO CENTRAL CUBA
NEAR 22N80W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120
NM SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT AND WITHIN 300 NM NORTHWEST OF THE
FRONT. OTHERWISE...WEAK RIDGING PREVAILS TO THE SE OF THE FRONT
ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 24N62W THAT IS EXPECTED
TO DRIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FARTHER EAST...
SUBTROPICAL STORM ALEX INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN
QUARTER OF THE BASIN WITH THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
ANALYZED CURRENTLY AS A SURFACE TROUGH...REMAINS WELL TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM FROM 12N40W TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR
12N61W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN
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