[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131731
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED JAN 13 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN OCCLUDED 989 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN ATLC NEAR
26N32W. AN 1124 UTC SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED GALE FORCE
WINDS OCCURRING WITHIN 200 NM SOUTH AND 350 NM TO THE EAST OF
THE LOW CENTER. PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE FORECAST
PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS ON THIS GALE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO
08N20W TO 05N26W...WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO
03N35W TO 02N44W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS BEING OBSERVED AT THIS
TIME.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM SW FLOW COVERS THE MAJORITY
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY. DRY LOW LEVELS ARE OVER THE N
GULF...WITH HIGHER MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND S GULF. THE COMBINATION OF JET FORCING AND MOISTURE IN PLACE
SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE
CENTRAL AND S GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF FROM
26N93W TO 19N93W. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 21N TO 24N
BETWEEN 90W AND 94W. SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE S US SUPPORTS MAINLY MODERATE E TO NE WINDS OVER THE N
GULF...AND MODERATE TO FRESH E TO NE WINDS OVER THE S
GULF...EXCEPT LIGHT SE WINDS E OF THE TROUGH OVER THE SW GULF.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GULF THROUGH TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CROSSING N MEXICO TOWARD S TX THURSDAY AND THEN THE NW GULF
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NW
GULF WITH CONVECTION INCREASING ACROSS THE NW AND CENTRAL GULF
THURSDAY AFTERNOON TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LOW WILL SPREAD TO THE EASTERN GULF THURSDAY NIGHT.
STRONG WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 23N81W
TO 20N87W TO 16N88W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
100 NM SE AND SEVERAL HUNDRED NM NW OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 14N64W AND E OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE EITHER SIDE OF THIS
TROUGH. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS COVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF
20N. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF
COLOMBIA BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE
STATIONARY FRONT WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO A WARM FRONT AS IT
DRIFTS NORTHWARD STARTING THURSDAY MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...

GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS HISPANIOLA TODAY
EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE E TIP OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. AN ENHANCEMENT IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE NE OF THE
ISLAND MAY BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE NE PORTION OF
HISPANIOLA TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN N ATLC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY
FRONT FROM 31N63W TO 26N70W TO 22N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 220 NM N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N61W TO NEAR 24N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 26N. FARTHER
EAST...AN OCCLUDED 989 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N32W SUPPORTING
GALE FORCE WINDS MAINLY TO THE S AND E OF THE LOW CENTER. PLEASE
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N28W TO 16N33W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N TO 31N BETWEEN 20W AND 32W. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE NEAR THE
STATIONARY FRONT...AND ALSO NEAR THE CENTER AND TO THE EAST OF
THE EASTERN ATLC LOW.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

LATTO
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