[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120503
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 988 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N42W.
AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER BEYOND 32N41W TO
34N36W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE 34N36W TRIPLE POINT...
THROUGH 32N36W...TO 26N352...19N40W 17N50W 17N60W...AND TO
18N66W JUST TO THE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. EXPECT GALE-FORCE
NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 19 FEET TO
29 FEET...TO THE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 42W AND 47W. EXPECT GALE-
FORCE SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8
FEET TO 16 FEET FROM 17N TO 25N BETWEEN 42W AND 35W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N41W TO 26N39W TO 21N37W...TO
10N36W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 19N TO 27N BETWEEN 32W AND 37W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 18N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 30W AND
41W...AND WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 19N40W 16N50W
17N60W 17N70W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/
FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2...FOR THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE SECTION
THAT IS CALLED...CAPE VERDE. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR
THAT AREA. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS INDICATES...
CYCLONIC NEAR GALE OR GALE IN...IRVING...METEOR...AND CAPE
VERDE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SENEGAL NEAR 08N13W TO 05N18W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N18W TO 02N24W 03N39W...TO THE EQUATOR
ALONG 47W...TO 01S48W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE FROM 11N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 18W AND 31W...AND
ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 31W AND 51W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE
ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS
APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE
THAT RUNS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR APALACHICOLA TO THE
DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS.

A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES FROM 28N94W TO 25N97W TO 21N97W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 90W
WESTWARD.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

MVFR CONDITIONS...KGUL AND KGRY. KVAF WAS REPORTING VISIBILITIES
IN THE IFR CATEGORY FOR THE LAST SEVERAL OBSERVATIONS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...MVFR IN THE DEEP SOUTH. VFR MOSTLY ELSEWHERE. NO
CEILINGS FROM AREAS THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF THE HOUSTON
METROPOLITAN AREA TO HUNTSVILLE...AND TO BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR.
LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA AND FLORIDA...VFR/NO
CEILINGS.

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A
RIDGE...THAT EXTENDS FROM VENEZUELA TO 27N63W AND 32N61W. THIS
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ON TOP OF A COLD
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N64W TO 27N70W TO 24N79W. A
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 24N79W...ACROSS CUBA TO THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL...TO 17N88W OFF THE COAST OF BELIZE. THE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED AT 12/0000
UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.05 IN
BERMUDA.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

600 MB TO 800 MB EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
THAT RUNS FROM 19N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 75W AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN
AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED
AT 12/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01KNHC...IS 0.01 IN
GUADELOUPE.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AT 12/0200 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE SKIES FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO LA
ROMANA TO PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO AND
PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST
WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE...WITH A
COLOMBIA TO HISPANIOLA RIDGE. WEST AND NORTHWEST WIND FLOW AT
THE START OF DAY TWO ENDS UP WITH SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW...AND A
RIDGE FROM NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA TO 21N64W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FOR DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
DAY ONE STARTS WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS
ABOUT 40 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO...AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. EXPECT
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW FOR THE REST OF DAY ONE AS THE ANTICYCLONIC
CENTER ENDS UP BEING ABOUT 110 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
PUERTO RICO AT THE END OF THE DAY. SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL
CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO...WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER
ENDING UP BEING ABOUT 130 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO
RICO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE MOST
OF DAY ONE. NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH WIND FLOW ENDS UP CROSSING
HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF DAY ONE...WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED
RIDGE THAT RUNS FROM PUERTO RICO TO JAMAICA. EXPECT THE SAME
EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF DAY TWO. DAY
TWO ENDS WITH SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N55W TO A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N59W...TO A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 25N70W...TO 22N76W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 31N15W...ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO 21N25W...TO
13N30W AND 12N39W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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