[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112341
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A PARTIALLY OCCLUDED 985 MB STORM FORCE SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 30N43W WITH THE FRONTAL TRIPLE
POINT LOCATED NE OF THE LOW NEAR 35N37W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT EXTENDS S-SW FROM THE TRIPLE POINT TO 30N36W TO 22N40W TO
17N50W TO THE EASTERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N66W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 21N-31N BETWEEN
33W-39W. WHILE THE STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LOCATED NORTH OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE
DISCUSSION AREA FROM N OF 24N BETWEEN 43W-47W. SEE LATEST NWS
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N11W TO
04N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
04N20W TO 04N35W TO 02N50W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED
AT THIS TIME.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MOSTLY DRY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS
OVER THE GULF BASIN THIS EVENING SOUTHEAST OF AN APPROACHING
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM OVER THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO OVER WEST TEXAS AND EXTREME NORTHERN
MEXICO. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MUCH OF THE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXTENDS FROM OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION W-SW TO
NW MEXICO. HOWEVER...AT THE SURFACE...CONDITIONS REMAIN RATHER
TRANQUIL THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB
HIGH CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN MISSISSIPPI NEAR 32N91W SPREADS
INFLUENCE SOUTHWARD PROVIDING THE GULF WATERS WITH GENTLE TO
MODERATE NE TO E WINDS. ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WIND REGIME IS A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGING FROM THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA BORDER NEAR 29N94W TO
26N96W TO 21N96W. EXTENSIVE OVERCAST CLOUDINESS AND WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING W OF 92W. ANOTHER AREA OF
NOTABLE PRECIPITATION IS ACROSS THE SE GULF WATERS AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE FROM SOUTHERN FLORIDA TO 23N86W
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING S OF 26N E OF 87W. THE EXISTING
RIDGE ACROSS THE SE CONUS IS FORECAST TO RECEIVE REINFORCEMENT
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A STRENGTHENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND AN INCREASE IN NE TO E WINDS WHILE SURFACE
TROUGHING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AND CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS ACROSS THE NW GULF LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO WITH
THE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION...THE
FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N80W
EXTENDING SW TO 20N85W AND INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR
16N88W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND THE PRESENCE OF THE
FRONT ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS GENERALLY NW OF A LINE
FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE ON TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY
AND STABLE AIR ALOFT PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MUCH OF
THE BASIN THIS EVENING. HOWEVER A COUPLE AREAS TO NOTE...ONE IS
A WESTWARD MOVING SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 13N72W TO 17N71W
PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 68W-
73W...AND THE OTHER IS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLC NEAR 17N50W TO THE EASTERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO NEAR
18N66W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE...GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL E
OF 80W WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS POSSIBLE WITHIN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

...HISPANIOLA...
CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THIS EVENING AS STRONG MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE ISLAND. NO
CHANGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH
ATLC REGION THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED
TROUGH CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS
TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION
AREA NEAR BERMUDA EXTENDING SW TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR
24N76W TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N80W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM SOUTHEAST OF
THE FRONT AND WITHIN 210 NM NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...
WEAK RIDGING PREVAILS TO THE SE OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1018
MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N65W THAT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FARTHER EAST...THE SPECIAL FEATURES
STORM FORCE LOW INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN
WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING AS FAR WEST AS PUERTO
RICO. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE AND REMAIN A RELATIVELY
STRONG DEEP LOW PRESSURE AREA FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN
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