[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031157
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN JAN 03 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF LIBERIA
NEAR 05N9W...TO 03N14W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 03N14W...TO
THE EQUATOR ALONG 33W...TO 02S43W ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 04N SOUTHWARD FROM 33W EASTWARD. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM 60W EASTWARD.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...
INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS MEXICO AND
TEXAS...AND THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES THAT ARE FROM 86W
WESTWARD...BECOMING WESTERLY WIND FLOW ELSEWHERE...ACROSS FLORIDA
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS
FROM 25N80W TO 25N70W BEYOND 30N61W. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF TEXAS.
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM 19N NORTHWARD
FROM 77W WESTWARD. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N56W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 30N62W AND 29N70W. THE FRONT BECOMES
STATIONARY FROM 29N70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND IT CONTINUES
TO SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR 26N81W...TO 23N90W IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...TO 22N94W AND TO 18N94W IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 NM TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N68W 29N74W 28N87W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WITHIN 500 NM TO 600 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N44W TO 24N70W TO 23N80W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING IN THE U.S.A.
GULF COASTAL PLAINS. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR
THE PERIOD ENDING AT 03/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...IS 0.65 IN BERMUDA.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...ALONG THE MEXICO COAST OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

KMZG HAS BEEN CHANGING BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR DURING THE LAST FEW
OBSERVATIONS. KBBF HAS BEEN CHANGING FROM IFR TO MVFR AND
VICE VERSA DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.

MVFR CONDITIONS AT...KHHV...KVAF...KEMK...KGUL...KGRY...KATP...
KIKT...KIPN...AND KVOA.

IFR CONDITIONS AT...KBQX.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...IFR MOSTLY/MVFR MORE TO THE WEST AND INLAND AND DRIZZLE
AT WESLACO IN THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. IFR AND LIGHT RAIN AT
THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KINGSVILLE...IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST AREAS.
IFR AND LIGHT RAIN IN PORT LAVACA. VFR CONDITIONS AND AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE FROM VICTORIA/PORT LAVACA/PALACIOS NORTHWARD
TO THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA AND GALVESTON AND BEAUMONT/PORT
ARTHUR. LOUISIANA...VFR EVERYWHERE/LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IN THE
LAKE CHARLES METROPOLITAN AREA. MISSISSIPPI...VFR CONDITIONS/NO
CEILINGS. ALABAMA...VFR CONDITIONS/NO CEILINGS. FLORIDA...VFR
CONDITIONS/NO CEILINGS FROM MARIANNA WESTWARD. LIGHT RAIN IN
SEVERAL PAST OBSERVATIONS AT APALACHICOLA AND TALLAHASSEE AND
VFR/NO CEILINGS NOW. LIGHT RAIN IN PERRY. IFR IN BROOKSVILLE.
VFR IN THE TAMPA-ST.PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA AND IN SARASOTA.
MVFR IN PUNTA GORDA AND IN PARTS OF THE FORT MYERS METROPOLITAN
AREA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND BROAD CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW FROM SIX HOURS AGO ARE COMPARATIVELY NOT AS WELL-DEFINED
NOW. A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
12N76W. BROAD AND MORE DIFFUSE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE FROM THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER
AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
LINE FROM 18N60W 15N72W 12N73W...INCLUDING MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF
VENEZUELA.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 16N TO 23N BETWEEN 60W
AND 70W.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NORTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF
BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 12N76W.
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NORTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND
FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW FROM
600 MB TO 800 MB IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
COVER THE SKIES FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO LA ROMANA TO PUNTA CANA.
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS A TROUGH WILL EXTEND
FROM PUERTO RICO TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA AT THE START OF THE 48-
HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW AT THE START
TO BECOME WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE END OF DAY ONE.
THE PUERTO RICO-TO-COLOMBIA TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD AND IT BECOMES
COMPARATIVELY LESS WELL-PRONOUNCED WITH TIME. A SECOND WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH DEVELOPS FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA-TO-COSTA
RICA. SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW AT THE START OF DAY TWO BECOMES
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AT THE END OF DAY TWO. THE CUBA-TO-COSTA
RICA TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD...AND ENDS UP ALONG THE LINE FROM THE
MONA PASSAGE TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR
500 MB SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW AT THE START OF
DAY ONE BECOMES NORTHEASTERLY...AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY
AGAIN BY THE END OF DAY ONE. THIS CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION COMES
ABOUT BECAUSE OF THE INFLUENCE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...AND A RIDGE THAT ULTIMATELY REACHES
HISPANIOLA. THE WIND DIRECTION IS FORECAST TO BECOME VARIABLE
DURING DAY TWO...WITH AN EVENTUAL RIDGE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE
END OF DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW...SOMETIMES SOUTHEASTERLY AND SOMETIMES
SOUTHWESTERLY... WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. A
COL POINT EVENTUALLY IS ON TOP OF OR REALLY CLOSE TO HISPANIOLA
AT THE END OF DAY ONE. DAY TWO CONSISTS OF MORE VARIABILITY IN
WIND DIRECTION ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THE END RESULT IS THAT
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND...
AND ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
ISLAND.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW EXITS FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA
NEAR 18N63W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF 18N63W 20N57W 14N45W 16N29W...
BEYOND 18N17W.

MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF THE
18N63W-TO-18N17W AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...
FROM 14N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 56W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N10W...TO 30N20W...TO A 1028 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N31W...TO 27N50W 26N61W...
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...TO CUBA NEAR 23N81W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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