[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 030605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN JAN 03 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 26.5N82W TO 22N94.5W TO 18.5N93.5W.
EXPECT NORTHWESTERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING
FROM 10 FEET TO 15 FEET FROM 19N TO 20.5N TO THE WEST OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT. EXPECT THE GALE-FORCE WINDS TO CONTINUE IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...ALONG THE MEXICO COAST OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF LIBERIA
NEAR 05N9W...TO 03N14W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 03N14W...TO
THE EQUATOR ALONG 33W...TO 02S43W ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 04N SOUTHWARD FROM 33W EASTWARD. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM 60W EASTWARD.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...
INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS MEXICO AND
TEXAS...AND THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES. THE WIND FLOW BECOMES
WESTERLY AS IT REACHES THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND MOVES ACROSS
FLORIDA. SOME OF THE WIND FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY AS IT
CURVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
32N59W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 28N74W. THE FRONT BECOMES
STATIONARY FROM 28N74W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO SOUTH FLORIDA
NEAR 26N81W...TO 24N90W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 22N95W AND TO
18N94W AT THE COAST OF MEXICO...IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N52W TO 28N66W AND TO 26N80W AT THE
COAST OF FLORIDA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IS
TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE FROM 26N91W TO 28N84W TO 29N77W. THIS
PRECIPITATION COVERS THE U.S.A. COASTAL PLAINS...PARTS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND WESTERN COASTAL
SECTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN
INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 03/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE
PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/
SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.65 IN BERMUDA.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE AT THE OIL PLATFORM SITES.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 12N74W.
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO
THESOUTHEAST OF THE LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO
NORTHEASTERNNICARAGUA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS
APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
LINE FROM 18N62W 16N70W 15N73W 11N74W...INCLUDING MOVING FROM
COLOMBIA AND ACROSS MUCH OF VENEZUELA.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWESETERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NORTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF
BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 12N74W.
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NORTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IS
MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW FROM 600 MB TO
800 MB IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AT 03/0000 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA AT 03/0000 UTC. FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS COVER THE SKIES FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO LA ROMANA TO PUNTA
CANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS A TROUGH WILL EXTEND
FROM PUERTO RICO TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA AT THE START OF THE 48-
HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW AT THE START
TO BECOME WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE END OF DAY ONE.
THE PUERTO RICO-TO-COLOMBIA TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD AND IT BECOMES
COMPARATIVELY LESS WELL-PRONOUNCED WITH TIME. A SECOND WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH DEVELOPS FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA-TO-COSTA
RICA. SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW AT THE START OF DAY TWO BECOMES
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AT THE END OF DAY TWO. THE CUBA-TO-COSTA
RICA TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD...AND ENDS UP ALONG THE LINE FROM THE
MONA PASSAGE TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR
500 MB SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW AT THE START OF
DAY ONE BECOMES NORTHEASTERLY...AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY
AGAIN BY THE END OF DAY ONE. THIS CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION COMES
ABOUT BECAUSE OF THE INFLUENCE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...AND A RIDGE THAT ULTIMATELY REACHES
HISPANIOLA. THE WIND DIRECTION IS FORECAST TO BECOME VARIABLE
DURING DAY TWO...WITH AN EVENTUAL RIDGE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE
END OF DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW...SOMETIMES SOUTHEASTERLY AND SOMETIMES
SOUTHWESTERLY... WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. A
COL POINT EVENTUALLY IS ON TOP OF OR REALLY CLOSE TO HISPANIOLA
AT THE END OF DAY ONE. DAY TWO CONSISTS OF MORE VARIABILITY IN
WIND DIRECTION ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THE END RESULT IS THAT
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND...
AND ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
ISLAND.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW EXITS FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA
NEAR 18N63W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF 18N63W 20N57W 14N45W 16N29W...
BEYOND 18N17W.

MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF THE
18N63W-TO-18N17W AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...
FROM 14N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 56W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N10W TO A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N33W...TO 26N52W 25N64W...TO THE BAHAMAS
NEAR 24N76W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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