[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231723
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT
FOR THE NW GULF LATE TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO ENTER THE NW GULF LATER TODAY. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING THEN SHIFT E THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON. SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N15W ALONG 9N17W TO 4N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 1N24W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 27W TO INLAND
OVER SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN 7W-13W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SHARP UPPER TROUGH IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL TEXAS MOVING TOWARD
THE TEXAS COAST SUPPORTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT AT 23/1200 UTC
REMAINS INLAND OVER TEXAS. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 29N95.5W INTO THE GULF WATERS OFFSHORE OF CORPUS CHRISTI
THEN BACK INLAND OVER TEXAS BETWEEN CORPUS CHRISTI AND
BROWNSVILLE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE NW GULF N OF 27N BETWEEN 92W-96W.
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT COVER ALL
BUT THE NW GULF LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH CLEAR
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE OVER
THE W AND N/CENTRAL GULF THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW GULF. THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY REACH
FROM S/CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO EARLY TONIGHT
AND FROM NEAR PANAMA CITY FLORIDA TO 25N88W TO E BAY OF CAMPECHE
EARLY ON WED THEN FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY TO INLAND OVER THE NE
YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY WED AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING OUT OF THE
GULF WED NIGHT. WINDS TO GALE FORCE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT OVER
MUCH OF THE NW AND N/CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT AND WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS
FROM COLOMBIA TO E CUBA THEN INTO THE W ATLC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATES THE BASIN AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING SOME ISOLATED
LOW LEVEL SHOWERS N OF 16N TO OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BETWEEN 66W-70W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE W ATLC WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY MODERATE TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH MID WEEK EXCEPT FOR PULSES OF STRONGER
WINDS OFF COLOMBIA. THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN EARLY WED NIGHT AND WILL
EXTEND FROM E CUBA TO NE HONDURAS BY EARLY THU EVENING AS IT
WEAKENS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE FROM NEAR THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NE HONDURAS BY LATE FRI.

HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE E PORTION OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC E OF 70W WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. LINGERING MOISTURE TO
THE E COUPLED WITH THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS COULD CONTINUE TO
BRING POSSIBLE ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS TO THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS E CUBA TO
BEYOND BERMUDA. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC EXTENDING
FROM THE N/CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N56W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH JUST W OF THE AZORES. A SHARP UPPER
TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 47W N OF 18N SUPPORTING
A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N46W ALONG 26N58W
24N66W TO JUST N OF E DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 20N69W. AN UPPER
RIDGE IS JUST TO THE E OF THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH PROVIDING
DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS N OF
24N BETWEEN 43W-48W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF FRONT IS
DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH BETWEEN
MADEIRA ISLANDS AND THE AZORES. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
E THROUGH WED AS SURFACE LOW QUICKLY DEEPENS OVER TEXAS AND
TRACKS NE TO WELL OUT OF THE REGION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE LOW AND SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW
TO INCREASE OVER THE NW WATERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH WED.
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE NE
FLORIDA COAST EARLY WED NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD REACHING
FROM 32N68W TO THE SE BAHAMAS BY LATE THU. STRONG TO NEAR GALE
FORCE WINDS WITH RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE COLD
FRONT N OF 27N WED NIGHT INTO THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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