[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231145
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE 24-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT FROM 30N89W TO
26N91W TO 23N98W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST WINDS AND SEA
HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 9 FEET TO 13 FEET TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
FRONT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS.

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONSISTS
OF...NORTHEAST NEAR GALE IN AGADIR AND CANARIAS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 07N12W TO 01N20W. NO ITCZ IS PRESENT. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 01N TO 06N BETWEEN 07W AND 15W...FROM 01N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN
27W AND 30W. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENING
PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 03N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 37W AND 47W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN
30W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE
GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SOUTHWARD. A
STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...TO THE
UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE FRONT IS
DISSIPATING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...TOWARD THE FAR WEST OF
TEXAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF LOUISIANA. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
MOVING THROUGH TEXAS NOW...ALONG 100W. CLOUDINESS AND
PRECIPITATION THAT ARE TO THE EAST OF THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE COVER THE AREA FROM 92W IN LOUISIANA AND 99W IN
TEXAS...AND IN THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS AND NEAR SHORE WATERS OF
TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAIN COVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO FROM 92W EASTWARD.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LIFR...KVBS...KMIS...AND KDLP.

IFR...KBBF AND KXIH.

MVFR...KMZG...KBQX...KGVX...KVAF...KEMK...KGUL...KVQT...KGRY...
KEIR...AND KMDJ.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...MVFR AT THE KINGSVILLE NAVAL AIR STATION...ALICE...AND
IN THE CORPUS CHRISTI METROPOLITAN AREA. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDER
ARE IN VICTORIA...PORT LAVACA...AND PALACIOS. RAIN IS BEING
REPORTED IN BAY CITY AND ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON...IN SUGARLAND...
AND FROM PEARLAND...THROUGH THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA TO
CONROE AND HUNTSVILLE. LIFR IN JASPER. LOUISIANA...LIFR IN THE
LAKE CHARLES METROPOLITAN AREA. LIFR IN LAFAYETTE AND NEW
IBERIA. LIFR IN BOOTHVILLE. LIFR IN BATON ROUGE...TO THE NORTHERN
SHORE AREA OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. IFR TO MVFR AROUND THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. MISSISSIPPI...MVFR IN
GULFPORT. IFR IN BILOXI DURING THE LAST SEVERAL OBSERVATIONS.
LIFR IN PASCAGOULA. ALABAMA...LIFR AT THE MOBILE REGIONAL
AIRPORT. MVFR AT THE MOBILE DOWNTOWN AIRPORT. IFR IN GULF
SHORES. FLORIDA...RAIN FROM MILTON TO THE PENSACOLA METROPOLITAN
AREA...AND IN CRESTVIEW. RAINSHOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN MARY
ESTHER DURING THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS. LIGHT DRIZZLE IN
VALPARAISO. LIFR IN MARIANNA. LIFR TO IFR IN THE PANAMA CITY
METROPOLITAN AREA. LIFR IN TALLAHASSEE AND APALACHICOLA. IFR
IN PERRY. MVFR AT THE TAMPA EXECUTIVE AIRPORT AND AT THE ST.PETE-
CLEARWATER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE SOUTHERN END OF A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 21N66W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE...TO 17N69W IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 15N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 22N IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 64W AND 72W.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA.

THE SOUTHERN END OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG
21N66W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE...TO
17N69W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 15N
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 22N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 64W
AND 72W.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SANTO
DOMINGO AND LA ROMANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. PUNTA CANA...A LOW
LEVEL CLOUD CEILING...MVFR...1800 FEET. SANTIAGO/PUERTO
PLATA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM COLOMBIA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THEN SHIFT TO THE LINE FROM COLOMBIA
BEYOND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. EXPECT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW FOR THE
NEXT TWO DAYS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. IT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD DURING DAY ONE...AND
THEN NORTHWESTWARD...TO A POSITION THAT IS ABOUT 150 NM TO THE
SOUTH OF THE MONA PASSAGE. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY
ONE. EXPECT MORE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE MOVES THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER AT THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THE MONA PASSAGE...AND THEN SOUTHWARD TO A SPOT THAT IS CLOSE TO
150 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE MONA PASSAGE AGAIN. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST-
TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE. THE PRESSURE PATTERN CHANGES FOR DAY
TWO. THE RIDGE DISAPPEARS AND IT LEAVES ONLY AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER TO BE NEAR 28N62W AT THE END OF DAY TWO.
EXPECT SOUTHEAST WIND ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N49W TO
27N49W 15N50W 13N55W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N40W
TO 29N50W 24N60W TO 21N66W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 21N66W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH THE MONA
PASSAGE...TO 17N69W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 25N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 15N
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 22N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 64W
AND 72W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT.

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO
30N70W...BEYOND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N77W...TO 17N83W IN
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1031 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N24W...TO 27N36W TO 16N51W AND
08N53W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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