[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 251143
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM SOUTH TEXAS...ALONG THE
MEXICO COAST...TO 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
21N98W...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT NOW IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONSISTS
OF...PERSISTENCE OF NORTHEAST NEAR GALE IN AGADIR AND CANARIAS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 07N12W TO 04N17W 04N20W AND 01N23W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 01N23W TO 02N20W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG
23W...TO 02S26W 03N34W AND 03S39W NEAR THE COAST OF BRAZIL.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
FROM 06N SOUTHWARD FROM 20W EASTWARD. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 01N SOUTHWARD TO THE
COAST OF BRAZIL BETWEEN 45W AND 50W. DISORGANIZED RAINSHOWERS
ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND 51W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF A
DEEP LAYER TROUGH WHOSE OVERALL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
U.S.A. FROM 100W EASTWARD. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO
THE CURRENT COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N76W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 23N81W IN CUBA...TO 19N85W IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO WESTERN
HONDURAS...TO SOUTHERN GUATEMALA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND AREAS OF RAIN ARE
WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N74W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...TO 24N80W IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...TO 20N84W IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE COMMON BORDER
AREA OF GUATEMALA...HONDURAS...AND EL SALVADOR. MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM CUBA NORTHWARD...BETWEEN THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N60W TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...AND THE COLD FRONT. MULTILAYERED
CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 21N SOUTHWARD FROM
90W WESTWARD IN MEXICO.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM SOUTH TEXAS...ALONG THE
MEXICO COAST...TO 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
21N98W...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT NOW IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE REFER
TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

VFR/NO CEILINGS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

VFR/NO CEILINGS.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 23N81W IN CUBA...TO 19N85W IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO WESTERN
HONDURAS...TO SOUTHERN GUATEMALA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND AREAS OF RAIN ARE
WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...TO 24N80W IN THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA...TO 20N84W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...TO THE COMMON BORDER AREA OF GUATEMALA...HONDURAS...AND EL
SALVADOR.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW...AND 800 MB
TO 600 MB SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW...ARE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SANTO DOMINGO...
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. LA ROMANA AND PUNTA CANA...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS. PUNTA CANA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.
SANTIAGO...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. PUERTO PLATA...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND A CLOUD CEILING AT 7000 FEET...VFR.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BE EXTEND FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA. EXPECT WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WIND. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR
500 MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START
ABOUT 125 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE PART OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC THAT IS ALONG 70W...PUSHING WESTWARD FOR A BIT OF TIME
AND THEN RETURNING EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. EXPECT
SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE WILL
EXTEND FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...THAT IS
FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 650 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA...TO
HISPANIOLA. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
AN INVERTED TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT
THE START OF DAY TWO. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE AFTER ABOUT 6 HOURS OR SO. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE
REPLACED BY A RIDGE. THE RIDGE WILL BE BRING BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW TO HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW A SURFACE TROUGH THAT CURVES FROM 32N49W
TO 29N47W TO 27N48W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 22N TO 32N BETWEEN 45W AND 56W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 27N42W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 16N38W AND 08N42W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 16N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 30W AND 45W.

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N55W TO
27N61W...TO 25N68W TO 23N70W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ELSEWHERE BETWEEN AFRICA AND
55W...AWAY FROM THE 32N55W 23N70W SURFACE TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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