[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT NOW IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONSISTS
OF...PERSISTENCE OF NORTHEAST NEAR GALE IN AGADIR AND CANARIAS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF LIBERIA
NEAR 07N11W TO 04N14W 03N20W AND 02N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
02N22W TO 02N20W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 24W...TO 02S28W
02N34W AND 03S39W AT THE COAST OF BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 01N
TO 02N BETWEEN 05W AND 09W. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 05N SOUTHWARD FROM 30W EASTWARD.
ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 30W AND
51W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THIS SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF A
DEEP LAYER TROUGH WHOSE OVERALL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
U.S.A. FROM 100W EASTWARD. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO
THE CURRENT EASTERN U.S.A.-TO-FLORIDA-TO-GULF OF MEXICO-TO-THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL-TO-BELIZE-TO-NORTHERN GUATEMALA COLD FRONT. A
SQUALL LINE IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM 120 NM TO 180 NM TO
THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT FROM...FROM 25N TO 30N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND AREAS
OF RAIN ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N76W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 26N80W AT
THE COAST OF FLORIDA...TO 22N84W IN NORTHWESTERN CUBA...TO
16N89W NEAR THE BELIZE/GUATEMALA BORDER. MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
OTHER POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 27N76W
27N60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FROM 22N SOUTHWARD FROM 87W
WESTWARD IN MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

VFR/NO CEILINGS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

FROM TEXAS TO ALABAMA...VFR/NO CEILINGS. FLORIDA...LIGHT RAIN
AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KEY WEST.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE CURRENT EASTERN U.S.A. TO FLORIDA COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA NEAR 26N82W...THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
TO NORTHERN BELIZE...TO NORTHERN GUATEMALA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND AREAS OF RAIN ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH TO 22N84W IN
NORTHWESTERN CUBA...TO 16N89W NEAR THE BELIZE/GUATEMALA BORDER.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW...AND 800 MB
TO 600 MB SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW...ARE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AT 25/0000 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
BARAHONA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AT 25/0000 UTC...SANTO
DOMINGO...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. LA ROMANA AND PUNTA
CANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. PUNTA CANA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS. SANTIAGO...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. PUERTO PLATA...
FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 7000 FEET.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BE EXTEND FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA. EXPECT WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WIND. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR
500 MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START
ABOUT 125 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE PART OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC THAT IS ALONG 70W...PUSHING WESTWARD FOR A BIT OF TIME
AND THEN RETURNING EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. EXPECT
SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE WILL
EXTEND FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...THAT IS
FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 650 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA...TO
HISPANIOLA. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
AN INVERTED TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT
THE START OF DAY TWO. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE AFTER ABOUT 6 HOURS OR SO. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE
REPLACED BY A RIDGE. THE RIDGE WILL BE BRING BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW TO HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N50W 28N52W 24N53W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 18N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 46W AND 56W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 27N42W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 17N38W AND 09N44W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 16N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 30W AND 46W.

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N57W TO
27N61W...TO 25N67W TO 24N75W IN THE BAHAMAS. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN AFRICA
AND 31N50W 24N53W SURFACE TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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