[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240601
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE 6-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT FROM 30N89W TO
26N93W TO 22N98W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST WINDS AND SEA
HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 9 FEET TO 14 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO
THE WEST OF THE FRONT. EXPECT ALSO GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH
WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 FEET TO 10 FEET TO THE
SOUTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF 96W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN ABOUT 18 HOURS...IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONSISTS
OF...NORTHEAST NEAR GALE IN AGADIR AND CANARIAS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W TO 05N17W AND 01N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
01N21W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 23W...TO 02S30W 03S34W... TO
02S44W AT THE COAST OF BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 05N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN
10W AND 26W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 02N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 32W
AND 50W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 30W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS ENCOMPASSING THE
U.S.A. BETWEEN ITS EAST COAST AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS DIGGING THROUGH
TEXAS...ARKANSAS...AND LOUISIANA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM A NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA 995 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER...THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF
TEXAS...ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...BEYOND THE FAR WEST OF TEXAS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 15 NM TO 30
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 25N88W 27N87W...TO 31N86W IN THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. A SECOND LINE IS WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 27N90W TO 30N88W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LIFR...NONE.

IFR...KVOA.

MVFR...KHHV...KVQT...KGRY...KEIR...KSPR...KIPN...KIKT...KVKY...
KMIS...AND KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...LIFR IN ALICE. MVFR AT THE ELLINGTON FIELD IN HOUSTON...
JASPER...AND CONROE. LIGHT RAIN IN HUNTSVILLE. LOUISIANA...MVFR
IN THE LAKE CHARLES METROPOLITAN AREA AND IN LAFAYETTE. LIGHT
RAIN IN NEW IBERIA. MVFR IN PORT FOURCHON. MISSISSIPPI...RAIN
AND THUNDER AT THE STENNIS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN BAY ST.LOUIS.
MVFR IN GULFPORT AND PASCAGOULA. ALABAMA...MVFR AT THE MOBILE
REGIONAL AIRPORT. LIGHT DRIZZLE IN GULF SHORES. FLORIDA...LIGHT
RAIN AT PENSACOLA NAVAL AIR STATION AND AT THE WHITING FIELD IN
MILTON. MVFR AT THE PENSACOLA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...IN
CRESTVIEW...AND IN MARY ESTHER AND VALPARAISO. LIGHT RAIN AT THE
NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. MVFR IN
MARIANNA AND TALLAHASSEE.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW...AND 800 MB
TO 600 MB SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW...ARE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AT 24/0200 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
BARAHONA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS. SANTO DOMINGO AND LA ROMANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.
PUNTA CANA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTIAGO/PUERTO
PLATA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BE ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA AT THE START OF THE 48-HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE WESTWARD...AND END UP
ACROSS JAMAICA AND CUBA FOR THE REST OF THE TIME. EXPECT
WESTERLY WIND FOR THE FIRST 12 TO 18 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY
NORTHWEST WIND FOR THE REST OF THE TIME. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL
START ABOUT 125 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE PART OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC THAT IS ALONG 70W...PUSHING SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS
HISPANIOLA. THESE CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE DURING
DAY ONE. THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER STAYS NEAR 16N70W FOR DAY TWO.
EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW AT THE START OF DAY TWO...BECOMING
WESTERLY FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS...AND THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST WIND
FLOW FOR THE LAST 12 HOURS OF SO OF DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 25N61W
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO. EXPECT ALSO AN INVERTED
TROUGH IN HAITI DURING DAY TWO.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N52W 26N60W 26N68W 22N70W.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THE TROUGH. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 25N NORTHWARD FROM
52W WESTWARD.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N44W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 25N42W 18N39W AND 08N39W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 29N TO 31N
BETWEEN 43W AND 45W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 24N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND 45W.

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N64W TO
28N70W 26N74W...TO CUBA NEAR 22N81W...TO CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE
BORDER OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N37W TO 23N46W AND 10N55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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