[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 181203
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU FEB 18 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA...TO A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE
MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 23N98W...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO LAST FOR THE NEXT
48 HOURS OR SO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING FORECAST FOR THE
FOLLOWING AREAS...MADEIRA...METEOR...CANARIAS...TARFAYA...AND
CAPE VERDE. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONSISTS
OF...PERSISTENCE OF NORTHEASTERLY NEAR GALE...LOCALLY GALE...IN
THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IRVING...MADEIRA...AGADIR...TARFAYA...
METEOR...CANARIAS...CAP BLANC...AND CAP TIMIRIS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 11N15W...TO 09N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
09N17W...05N18W...03N22W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 06N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN
07W AND 33W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 22W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WIND FLOW IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS COVERING THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 65W WESTWARD...AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN U.S.A...WITH
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA COLD FRONT. COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY IN THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

MVFR...KMZG...KBBF...KVAF...KEMK...KATP...KIPN AND KIKT FOR THE
LAST SEVERAL OBSERVATIONS...AND KVOA. VFR/NO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...LIFR IN HARLINGEN AND EDINBURG. MVFR IN BROWNSVILLE AND
MCALLEN. LIFR IN FALFURRIAS...ROBSTOWN...ALICE...AND AT THE
NAVAL AIR STATION IN KINGSVILLE. MVFR IN PARTS OF THE CORPUS
CHRISTI METROPOLITAN AREA. LIFR IN VICTORIA. IFR IN ANGLETON/
LAKE JACKSON. FROM LOUISIANA TO FLORIDA...VFR/NO CEILINGS.

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING IN
THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A DEEP LAYER TROUGH SPANS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S.A...THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 65W WESTWARD. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT IS PASSING THROUGH BERMUDA TO 32N72W TO 24N70W...TO
THE BAHAMAS NEAR 22N73W...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 19N84W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 30N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 56W AND 66W...AND WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 30N63W TO
26N66W...AND NARROWING TO 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
26N66W TO 23N73W. A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N74W
TO 28N77W. THIS FRONT IS MARKED BY A DISTINCTIVE CLOUD BAND IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE
PERIOD ENDING AT 18/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...IS 1.25 IN BERMUDA.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THAT
IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM HISPANIOLA TO THE
COAST OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
18/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 1.06 IN
GUADELOUPE.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA.

A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA TO THE PENINSULA
DE LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA...IN THE SURFACE ISOBARIC
ANALYSIS.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SANTO
DOMINGO...FOG...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND SCATTERED MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUDS. LA ROMANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. PUNTA
CANA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTIAGO...FOG...AND A LOW
LEVEL CLOUD CEILING AT 1400 FEET...MVFR. PUERTO PLATA...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST
WIND FLOW FOR DAY ONE. A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING
DAY TWO. EXPECT NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY
TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST
WIND...WEST WIND...AND THEN NORTHWEST WIND...WILL MOVE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. EXPECT NORTHWEST WIND DURING DAY TWO.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH
WILL BE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE BEGINNING OF DAY ONE. THE
INVERTED TROUGH WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME. NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. EXPECT NORTHEAST WIND
FLOW...AND THEN CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...FOR DAY TWO.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A BROAD
20N43W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER....TO 11N33W. BROKEN
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 17N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 30W AND 46W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N15W TO
26N20W 25N30W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N12W TO 29N20W 28N30W TO 32N41W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND 32N41W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N13W 27N18W 26N30W 28N38W...BEYOND 32N41W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE BERMUDA-TO-BAHAMAS NEAR
22N73W COLD FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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