[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 180605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU FEB 18 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS OF
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA/THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST...AND
SOUTHWARD TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE GALE-FORCE
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO LAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. PLEASE
READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/
FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING FORECAST FOR THE
FOLLOWING AREAS...CANARIAS AND TARFAYA. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS CONSISTS OF...PERSISTENCE OF NORTHEASTERLY NEAR GALE IN
ALL THE INDIVIDUAL AREAS THAT ARE LISTED ON THE MAP FROM 15N TO
35N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 35W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W...TO 06N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
06N19W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 21W...TO 03S25W AND 06S27W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 01N TO 03N
BETWEEN 05W AND 10W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 02N TO
03N BETWEEN 13W AND 15W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 04N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 18W AND 43W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM
10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 34W AND 58W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...AND COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE...SPAN THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

MVFR...KHHV AND KGHB. VFR/NO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...MVFR IN PORT ISABEL. LIFR IN FALFURRIAS. IFR AT THE
CORPUS CHRISTI NAVAL AIR STATION. MVFR IN ALICE. IFR IN VICTORIA.
MVFR IN BAY CITY

BROWNSVILLE AND
HARLINGEN AND WESLACO. IFR IN PORT ISABEL AND EDINBURG. MVFR IN
MCALLEN. LIFR IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL AREAS...FROM
FALFURRIAS TO ALICE AND THE CORPUS CHRISTI METROPOLITAN AREA.
LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI/ ALABAMA...VFR/NO CEILINGS. FLORIDA...LIFR
IN PERRY...IN BROOKSVILLE...AT THE TAMPA EXECUTIVE AIRPORT...AND
AT THE ST.PETE/CLEARWATER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. IFR AT THE
MACDILL AIR FORCE BASE...AND IN SARASOTA. LIFR IN PUNTA
GORDA...IN THE FORT MYERS METROPOLITAN AREA...AND IN NAPLES.

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS... INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING IN THE
REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS PARTS OF
THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A....THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 65W AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT COLD FRONT THAT IS
PASSING THROUGH 32N67W TO 28N70W...TO 23N75W IN THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...TO 20N80W...AND 20N85W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N63W 26N57W. ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 66W AND 71W.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THAT
IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM HISPANIOLA TO THE
COAST OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
18/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 1.06 IN
GUADELOUPE.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA.

A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA TO THE PENINSULA
DE LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA.

SUFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND A VFR CLOUD CEILING...4000 FEET...AT 18/0200
UTC OBSERVATION. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BARAHONA...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS...4000 FEET. SANTO DOMINGO...A LOW LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING...1400 FEET. LA ROMANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. PUNTA
CANA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTIAGO...SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS. PUERTO PLATA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST
WIND FLOW FOR DAY ONE. A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING
DAY TWO. EXPECT NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY
TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST
WIND...WEST WIND...AND THEN NORTHWEST WIND...WILL MOVE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. EXPECT NORTHWEST WIND DURING DAY TWO.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH
WILL BE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE BEGINNING OF DAY ONE. THE
INVERTED TROUGH WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME. NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. EXPECT NORTHEAST WIND
FLOW...AND THEN CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...FOR DAY TWO.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS...INTOTHE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...INCLUDING IN THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A DEEP LAYER TROUGH SPANS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S.A...THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO...AND
THEATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 70W WESTWARD.
. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT COLD FRONT THAT IS PASSING
THROUGH 32N72W TO 28N74W...TO ANDROS ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS... TO 24N81W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 24N81W
TO 22N87W AND 22N96W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THE NUMEROUS STRONG FROM SIX HOURS AGO NOW IS TO THE
NORTH OF 32N. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N67W 28N69W TO 25N72W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 400 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N74W TO 27N82W TO 22N91W.




A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 29N48W TO 21N44W
TO 10N33W. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 240 NM TO 360 NM ON
EITHER SIDE THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N43W TO 28N40W
AND 19N37W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
18/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 1.25 IN
BERMUDA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N54W TO 28N59W TO 23N64W...
TOWARD THE MONA PASSAGE. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE
32N67W-TO-23N74W IN THE BAHAMAS COLD FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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