[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 121800
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA...

GALE-FORCE NORTHEAST-TO-NORTH WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM
10 FEET TO 13 FEET ARE FROM 10.5N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W.
THE GALE-FORCE WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN
GALE-FORCE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS OF
LIBERIA NEAR 06N10W TO 03N20W AND 02N23W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 02N23W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 27W...AND CONTINUING IN
THE AREA FROM 01S TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 27W AND 38W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING
THROUGH THE EASTERN COAST OF THE U.S.A...FROM NORTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTH CAROLINA TO FLORIDA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE
STATIONARY FRONT THAT CURRENTLY IS ALONG AN EAST-TO-WEST LINE
FROM GEORGIA TO EAST TEXAS IS FORECAST TO GAIN MORE ENERGY AND
MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA AS A COLD FRONT
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN SOUTH FLORIDA
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A 1027 MB GULF OF MEXICO HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N84W...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 20N97W ALONG THE MEXICO COAST.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ON THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE
NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

VFR/NO CEILINGS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...MVFR CONDITIONS FROM TOMBALL TO CONROE TO HUNTSVILLE.
VFR/NO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE. THE LIFR CONDITIONS THAT WERE
OCCURRING FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL AREAS TO THE
HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA TWO TO THREE HOURS AGO...HAVE CLEARED
UP. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN LAFAYETTE AND IN PATTERSON...BATON
ROUGE...IN AREAS THAT ARE ALONG THE NORTHERN SHORES OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...AND AT THE NEW ORLEANS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.
MISSISSIPPI...MVFR IN BILOXI. FLORIDA...MVFR IN PERRY.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 22N66W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO EASTERN JAMAICA...AND TO THE
NORTHEASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF NICARAGUA. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS
FROM SOUTHWESTERN HAITI TO EASTERN COASTAL HONDURAS.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
FROM 16N SOUTHWARD FROM 80W EASTWARD.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
12/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 3.26 IN
MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA...0.15 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO...0.05
IN KINGSTON IN JAMAICA...AND 0.01 IN GUADELOUPE.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...AND
NORTHEASTERLY 600 MB TO 800 MB WIND FLOW...ARE MOVING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA.

A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO JAMAICA...TO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
NICARAGUA. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BARAHONA...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTO DOMINGO/LA ROMANA/PUNTA CANA...SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTIAGO...A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING. PUERTO
PLATA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE WIND FLOW FOR
DAY ONE WILL BE SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST...AND THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST.
A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA BEYOND THE ANEGADA PASSAGE INTO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. EXPECT NORTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW FOR DAY TWO.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR DAY ONE. A COL POINT WILL BE
ABOUT 180 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HISPANIOLA...AND
EVENTUALLY IT WILL MOVE TO A POINT THAT IS ABOUT 120 NM TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BY THE END OF DAY ONE. EXPECT MORE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW
DURING DAY TWO. THE COL POINT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND
DISSIPATE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR MUCH OF DAY
ONE OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT BROAD CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW FOR MUCH OF DAY ONE...BECOMING VARIABLE AT THE END OF DAY
ONE. EXPECT MORE VARIABLE WIND FLOW FOR THE FIRST HALF OF DAY
TWO...BECOMING NORTHERLY FOR THE REST OF DAY TWO.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N54W TO 31N55W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 31N55W TO 27N60W...TO 22N66W...THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO EASTERN JAMAICA...AND TO THE NORTHEASTERN
COASTAL SECTIONS OF NICARAGUA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 350 NM TO 500 NM TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N50W 24N60W...TO 20N70W AT THE COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE
PERIOD ENDING AT 12/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...IS 0.02 IN BERMUDA.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 10N56W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS
MOVING AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 06N TO
13N BETWEEN 51W AND 58W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM
06N TO 10N BETWEEN 50W AND 58W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 16N35W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
10N TO 23N BETWEEN 25W AND 41W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 18N TO 19N BETWEEN 28W AND 33W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N54W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A 1032 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N28W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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