[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121154
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA
SUPPORTS GALE-FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SAT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS LIBERIA AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 05N10W AND CONTINUES TO 02N24W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 01N40W TO NORTHERN BRAZIL COASTAL WATERS
NEAR 01N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 0N TO 06N ALONG BOTH THE
MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN BEING ANCHORED BY A
1025 MB HIGH OVER E WATERS NEAR 25N87W. LIGHT AND GENTLE
VARIABLE WIND COVERS MOST OF THE BASIN...EXCEPT OFF THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST WHERE MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS NOTED. WATER
VAPOR AND CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW DRY STABLE
AIR ACROSS THE BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH EARLY
SAT WHEN THE CENTER OF HIGH PRES DISSIPATES OFF THE COAST OF
TEXAS. THEN...AN ELONGATED RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR NORTHERN IOWA
WILL PROVIDE NE TO E FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH EARLY SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN
WATERS AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT OVER NW HISPANIOLA THAT STALLS
AND STARTS TO DISSIPATE SW TO EASTERN JAMAICA TO NICARAGUA NE
COASTAL WATERS. SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE WESTERN BASIN SUPPORTS
ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN HISPANIOLA. FRESH TO STRONG NE FLOW IS W OF THE FRONT TO
80W. WITH HIGH PRES EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN...THE PRES GRADIENT HAS TIGHTEN
IN THE SW BASIN. THIS IS LEADING TO GALE-FORCE WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SAT. SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE IN THE REMAINDER
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 69W AND 80W. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG NE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
NW CARIBBEAN SAT AS A NEW COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS.

HISPANIOLA...

A COLD FRONT OVER SW N ATLC WATERS EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW ISLAND
AND STALLS ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SW TO NICARAGUA NE
COASTAL WATERS. SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT
WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN HISPANIOLA TODAY. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE
TONIGHT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE DURING THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD
FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N57W SW TO NW
HISPANIOLA TO NICARAGUA NE COASTAL WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
HAPPENING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS E ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
INTO THE SW N ATLC...W OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER BASIN E OF
THE FRONT IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY
A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N29W. THE COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT E
TO THE CENTRAL ATLC TODAY WHERE IT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE SW N ATLC WATERS SAT MORNING WITH
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS BEHIND IT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS
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