[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292333
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 PM EST THU DEC 29 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...A cold front extends across the
Gulf of Mexico the evening with strong northwest winds, gusts to
gale force, and building seas over the west-central Gulf. Winds
will increase to Gale Force overnight tonight sliding south to
the southwest Gulf early Friday. These winds are expected to be
below gale force by Friday night. Please see the High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO Headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends south of southwest Africa along 3N to
3N6W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 5N15W 2N21W 2N30W
to 1N39W. No significant convection is noted.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad upper trough is sweeping across the east CONUS
supporting a strong cold front that at 29/2100 UTC extends from
the west Atlantic across northeast Florida near 30N83W into the
Gulf along 27N89W 26N95W then south into Mexico near Tampico.
West of this front are strong northwest winds with gusts to gale
force. A Gale Warning is expected to go into effect overnight
tonight. Please see the Special Features above. Scattered
showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are within 45 nm
southeast of the front. An upper ridge extends from the east
Pacific region across Mexico and the Gulf waters. A surface
ridge is building over the northwest Gulf in the wake of the
front anchored by a 1038 mb high over northwest Texas. The front
will quickly move through Gulf by Friday night. High pressure in
the wake of the front will shift eastward through Saturday
night. This will allow fresh to strong southerly surface flow to
develop in the northwest and north-central Gulf this weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper ridge remains across the Caribbean with southwest to
westerly flow aloft. Easterly trade winds are banking isolated
to scattered showers over the southwest Caribbean from 10N-15N
west of 78W to over Central America. Fair weather with possible
isolated, low level showers are across the remainder of the
Caribbean this evening. Strong trade winds off Colombia will
diminish through Friday night as the west Atlantic surface ridge
shifts east ahead of the cold front currently in the Gulf of
Mexico. This cold front is expected to move into the northwest
Caribbean Friday night followed by strong northeast winds. The
front will then stall from east Cuba to Belize late Saturday
then dissipate through early next week. High pressure building
behind the front over the Gulf of Mexico will support strong
trade winds across the Caribbean from Friday night through the
weekend.

HISPANIOLA...

Mostly fair weather dominates the island this evening with the
possible isolated, low level shower moving across the island
with the easterly trade winds. Possible isolated showers will
continue across the island through Friday increasing early
Saturday with the approach of the cold front that will brush by
the north coast of the island through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The broad upper trough over the eastern CONUS is moving into the
northwest Atlantic supporting a strong cold front that at
29/2100 UTC extends through 32N80W across northeast Florida into
the Gulf of Mexico near 30N83W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are within 120 nm east of the front. A surface
trough precedes the front extending from 31N75W to off south
Florida near 26N79W. A second weaker surface trough is to the
south extending along 72W south of 26N to over the Turks and
Caicos generating possible isolated showers within 60 nm either
side of this surface trough. A surface ridge covers the central
Atlantic between 37W-65W anchored by a a 1025 mb high near
30N50W. An upper trough over the east Atlantic is supporting a
surface trough that extends through 32N23W to 25N25W. The west
Atlantic cold front will reach from Bermuda to central Cuba
Friday evening and from 32N54W along 23N65W to east Cuba
Saturday evening. Strong high pressure behind the front will
shift eastward along 33N through the weekend.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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