[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291719
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1218 PM EST THU DEC 29 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A cold front is already moving across the northwest Gulf of Mexico
a of 1500 UTC. As the front moves through the basin, a surface
ridge will build in the wake of the front. The pressure gradient
generated in the area will support gale-force winds south of 24N
west of 96W from this afternoon through the next 36 hours. Please
see the High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa reaching the east
Atlantic near 04N09W to 03N01W. The ITCZ begins from that point to
04N17W to 02N40W. Isolated showers are observed along these
boundaries.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the southwest Gulf. Please refer
to the section above for details. A cold front is currently moving
across the northwest Gulf enhancing winds/seas. Over the remainder
of the basin, a 1019 surface high is centered near 26N82W and
extends its ridge across the whole area. Scatterometer data
depicts a light to gentle anticyclonic flow across the basin. The
front will quickly move over the central and eastern Gulf through
early Friday. High pressure in the wake of the front will shift
eastward along 31N through Saturday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient generated by the interaction of the surface
high that prevails across the Atlantic and lower pressures across
the northern portion of South America is supporting moderate to
fresh trades across the Caribbean waters. Low-level moisture
transported by the trades is generating isolated low-topped
showers that will continue moving quickly across the basin. Winds
will diminish later tonight through Friday night as the pressure
gradient weakens. A cold front is expected to move into the
northwest Caribbean by late Friday. The front will then stall
from the Windward Passage to the Gulf of Honduras by Saturday
night.

HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. Isolated
showers are possible across the island through Friday due to
daytime heating. Convection will increase by this weekend as a
cold front approaches and stall over the Windward Passage by
Saturday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends across the west Atlantic from 25N71W to
22N72W. Isolated showers are observed along this trough. A surface
ridge extends across the central Atlantic anchored by a 1025 mb
high centered near 29N51W. To the east, a surface trough extends
from 21N31W to 32N23W with no significant convection. A cold
front will move off the northeast Florida coast tonight reaching
from Bermuda to central Cuba Friday evening and from 32N54W along
24N65W to the Windward Passage Saturday evening. Strong high
pressure behind the front will shift eastward along 30N through
Saturday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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