[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272343
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 PM EST TUE DEC 27 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 6N10W and continues to 5N15W where the ITCZ begins
and continues along 2N21W 00N29W to 2N38W, then resumes near
8N46W to 7N56W. A surface trough is embedded within the ITCZ
extending from 11N42W to 7N44W. Clusters of scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection are from the equator to 5N east of
17W to across the Prime Meridian, from 7N to just south of the
equator between 27W-38W, and within 180 nm west of the surface
trough.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper ridge extends from the southwest coast of Mexico to
over Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley covering the west
Gulf. A shortwave upper trough extends from northeast Florida to
over the Yucatan Peninsula. At the surface is a surface ridge
covering the Gulf and anchored by a pair of 1025 mb high over
northeast and northwest Florida panhandle. A weakening surface
trough is along the coast of Mexico from Veracruz to Tampico
generating scattered showers within 120 nm east of the trough
and west of the trough to inland over Mexico. The remainder of
the Gulf is under fair weather this evening. Warm, moist,
southeasterly surface flow will support patchy fog over far west
and north-central Gulf through Wednesday night. A cold front is
expected to enter the Gulf on Thursday followed by strong
northwest winds and building seas. The front will quickly move
over the central and eastern Gulf by early Friday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper ridge extends from South America across Colombia and
the Caribbean over the Windward Passage and into the west
Atlantic. Mostly fair weather with possible isolated showers are
across the Caribbean this evening. The west Atlantic surface
ridge is giving the Caribbean fresh to strong northeast trade
winds that will continue through Wednesday evening. Winds will
diminish Wednesday night through Friday as the surface ridge
weakens. Strong northeast trade winds will pulse off the coast
of Colombia through early Saturday.

HISPANIOLA...

Mainly fair weather is across the island this evening with a
possible isolated, fast moving shower. This scenario will
continue through Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The upper ridge over the Caribbean extends through the Windward
Passage over the west Atlantic. A surface ridge covers the
central and west Atlantic anchored by 1030 mb high near 33N56W.
An upper trough over the east/central Atlantic is supporting a
cold front that extends through 32N32W to 25N43W then dissipates
to 24N56W. An east/west upper ridge extends across the tropics
along 10N and is advecting tropical moisture with possible
scattered showers within a 300 nm swath from 10N43W to 23N26W.
The west Atlantic surface ridge will persist through Thursday
night. A cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast
Thursday evening reaching from Bermuda to central Cuba Friday
evening.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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