[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271727
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1227 PM EST TUE DEC 27 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website:
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast for the area
that is called: IRVING. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that follow
the forecast that is valid until 28/1200 UTC, consists of: the
persistence of a cyclonic gale or near gale in IRVING.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W
to 05N15W. The monsoon trough continues from 05N15W to 01N28W to
02N39W, then resumes from 08N45W to 07N56W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is present from 01N to 04N between 02W
and 15W and from 00N to 06N between 25W and 35W. A surface trough
extends from 06N43W to 10N39W. Scattered moderate convection is
seen from 07N to 12N between 43W and 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad upper-level ridge covers the western Gulf. A broad upper-
level trough extends southwestward from the Florida big bend to
the Yucatan peninsula. Convergent upper-level winds between these
two features is generally suppressing convection over the Gulf,
except near the ridge axis over the Bay of Campeche. A weak
surface ridge extends westward along the northern gulf coast. A
surface trough reaches northward from the Isthmus of Tehuantepec
at 18N95W into the Bay of Campeche at 22N93W. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection associated with the trough is found
from 19N to 22N between 95W and 97W. Gentle to moderate east winds
are generally observed across the Gulf of Mexico. This easterly
flow will weaken tonight and Wednesday as the surface ridge shifts
southward in advance of the next cold front. Warm, moist, air will
support patchy fog over the northwest Gulf until the cold front
arrives. The cold front is expected to enter the Gulf around
midday on Thursday.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level ridge extends NW from Colombia over the western
Caribbean to eastern Cuba. A broad upper-level trough heads
northeastward from Venezuela over the Virgin Islands. Convergent
upper-level flow between these two features is suppressing deep
convection. This weather pattern is expected to continue for the
next several days. The west Atlantic surface ridge continues to
give the Caribbean fresh to strong northeast winds. Surface low
pressure and an attendant cold front moving eastward from the east
coast of the United states will weaken the ridge, which will allow
wind speeds over all of the Caribbean except north of the coast of
Colombia to decrease to between moderate and fresh by Thursday
night.

...HISPANIOLA...

A relatively dry weather pattern will remain in place for the next
few days as convergent upper-level winds to the west of an upper-
level trough stay overhead. Fresh to strong trades will decrease
by Friday as the ridge to the north weakens.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak upper-level trough is moving eastward from the Florida
peninsula. A much larger upper-level trough extends eastward from
the Virgin Islands to the Azores. The cold front associated with
the larger upper-level trough curves southwestward from 31N36W to
24N49W. The boundary continues as a weakening front to 24N56W. A
surface ridge covering the central Atlantic is anchored by 1031 mb
high pressure centered near 34N57W. A weakening surface trough
lingers along the Florida east coast from 25N81W to 31N81W.
Scattered showers are located within 30 nm of the trough axis to
the north of 27N. The Atlantic surface ridge will gradually shift
eastward in advance of a cold front that will move off the
southeastern United States on Wednesday. This will weaken winds to
the west of 60W. A much stronger cold front will blast
southeastward from the United States mainland on Thursday night
and continue into the Bahamas on Friday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
McElroy
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