[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261730
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1230 PM EST MON DEC 26 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale-force winds are forecast for the area called Irving. The
outlook for the next 24 hours consists of the persistence or
threat of gale-force winds in Irving and the threat of gale or
severe gale in the northwest part of Irving. Please refer to the
METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed under the
following links: MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND
LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM
/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2.

ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The ITCZ extends from 05N10W to 04N21W to 05N36W. A surface
trough is from 09N36W to 05N39W. Scattered moderate convection
is from 02N-05N between 16W-28W and along the trough.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from the western Atlantic to the Gulf
waters producing mainly moderate easterly winds across most of the
basin except the southeast area where moderate to fresh winds
prevail. The ridge will prevail through the next couple days. A
trough will develop each night over the Yucatan peninsula and move
west into the Bay of Campeche each night, then dissipate over the
by late morning. The next cold front is expected to enter the
northern Gulf by Thursday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The most recent scatterometer data indicated fresh to strong
northeasterly winds across the central Caribbean with strong to
near gale force winds near the coast of Colombia. These winds are
the result of a tight pressure gradient between a strong high
pressure north of the area and the Colombian low. Scattered
moderate convection continues across the regional waters of
Nicaragua and Honduras supported by a diffluent pattern aloft.
The high pressure north of the area will continue to support
fresh to strong winds across much of the basin through the next 24
hours, then diminish on Wednesday and Thursday as the ridge
shifts east and weakens.

...HISPANIOLA...

Shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow will move across
the region producing isolated passing showers and gusty winds.
This scenario will continue through mid-week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A strong high pressure centered north of the area extends its
ridge across the western Atlantic west of 55W. Moderate to strong
winds are depicted in scatterometer data along the southern
periphery of the ridge, particularly between the Bahamas and Cuba.
A surface trough extends from 31N48W to 28N52W with isolated
showers. The remainder of the Atlantic is under the influence of
another ridge anchored by a 1034 mb high pressure located near
43N15W. Gale-force winds are expected across the far east
Atlantic. Please refer to the section above for details. The next
cold front is forecast to enter the western Atlantic on Thursday
night and reach from Bermuda to the central Bahamas on Friday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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