[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261151
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
651 AM EST MON DEC 26 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website:
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast for the area
that is called: IRVING. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that follow
the forecast that is valid until 27/1200 UTC, consists of: the
persistence or threat of a S gale in IRVING, and the threat of a
N or NW gale or severe gale in the NW part of IRVING.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal sections of Liberia near
06N10W, to 04N12W. The ITCZ continues from 04N12W to 03N15W 05N17W
04N25W 03N30W 03N37W. A surface trough is along 39W/40W from 01N
to 07N. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong, from 01N to 06N between 09W and 25W, from 05N to
09N between 30W and 40W, and from 06N to 08N between 50W and 53W.
Isolated moderate elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward.
High level clouds are to the south of 26N16W 23N34W 16N60W,
moving northeastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A deep layer trough is moving through the central U.S.A.
Upper level southerly wind flow covers the entire Gulf of Mexico.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, across the entire Gulf of Mexico. A cold front is moving
through central sections of Texas.

A surface ridge extends from the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico
into the SW corner of the area, near 20N98W in the coastal plains
of Mexico.

Convective precipitation: Rainshowers are possible from 92W
eastward, in areas of scattered/broken low level clouds, in
southerly surface wind flow.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KMZG, KBBF, KXIH, KHHV, KVAF, KEMK, KGUL, KGBK, KVQT, KGHB,
KGRY, and KEIR.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: MVFR from south to north in the coastal plains, with
smaller areas of LIFR in parts of the middle Texas coast areas, and
IFR. light rain has been reported, during the last few hours, from
parts of the Houston metropolitan area toward the north and
northeast. LOUISIANA: IFR/MVFR in the southern sections/coastal
plains. LIFR mostly in SE corner, from Lake Pontchartrain to the
south and southeast. MISSISSIPPI: MVFR/IFR from Natchez-to-
Hattiesburg southward and southeastward. LIFR/IFR in the coastal
plain. ALABAMA: LIFR/IFR from Evergreen to the coastal plains.
FLORIDA: IFR/MVFR from Crestview southwestward, with some areas
of light rain. IFR in the Panama City metropolitan area. LIFR in
Apalachicola, Perry, and Cross City. IFR at the Tampa Executive
Airport and in Punta Gorda.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow, from South America and Central
America, toward the north and northeast, is related to an upper
level ridge that extends from Lake Maracaibo in NW Venezuela,
beyond NW Cuba.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, to the north and northeast of the line that passes
through 12N60W 14N70W 20N81W. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow
has been pushing the comparatively drier air into this part of the
Caribbean Sea.

Upper level southerly wind flow covers the area that is from 80W
westward, in the area of upper level anticyclonic wind flow, with
the Venezuela-to-NW Cuba ridge. Convective precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 20N southward
from 80W westward, in the coastal waters and coastal plains of
Central America. It is possible that speed convergence may be a
contributing factor to the precipitation.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N between 74W and southern
Panama. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong from 11N southward from 76W westward.

24-HOUR rainfall totals in inches for the period ending at
26/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.17 in
Curacao, and 0.06 in Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level NE wind flow is moving across Hispaniola. Comparatively
drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, across
the entire area. Convective precipitation: Rainshowers are
possible across Hispaniola, and in the coastal waters and coastal
plains, in areas of broken low level to middle level clouds.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo
Domingo/La Romana: VFR/no ceiling. Punta Cana: light rain. Santiago
and Puerto Plata: VFR/no ceiling. earlier rain in Puerto Plata has
ended.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that NW wind flow will
move across the area during the next 48 hours. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 500 MB shows that N-to-NE wind flow will move across
the area during the next 48 hours, with a Bahamas-to-Hispaniola
ridge. It is possible that some NW wind flow will move across
Hispaniola during the last 12 hours or so, of the 48-hour forecast
period. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that NE wind flow
will move across the area during the next 48 hours. A NW-to-SE
oriented ridge will extend from the Atlantic Ocean/Florida/The
Bahamas beyond Hispaniola.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 32N50W, to 28N49W and 26N53W.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, from 26N northward between 48W and 70W. The trough is
supporting a cold front that passes through Bermuda, to 31N60W
and 31N65W beyond 32N68W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers
are possible to the N and NW of the line that passes through
33N50W to 28N60W and 28N73W 30N80W.

An upper level trough passes through 32N36W to 25N38W 19N48W
15N60W. A stationary front passes through 32N50W to 31N53W.
Convective precipitation: isolated moderate within 240 nm to the
W and NW of the line that passes through 32N43W to 26N51W.
Rainshowers are possible elsewhere to the W and NW of the line
26N51W 22N58W 20N66W.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 31N18W. Cyclonic
wind flow covers the area that is from 23N northward from 30W
eastward. One surface trough is along 35N07W 33N10W 31N12W. A
second surface trough is along 20W/21W from 26N to 32N. A third
surface trough is along 25N30W 22N31W 20N32W. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate from 28N northward between Africa
and 22W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 20N northward
between 20W and 40W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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