[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251741
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 PM EST SUN DEC 25 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the the east
Tropical Atlantic near 6N11W to 4N18W where the ITCZ begins and
continues along 6N38W to 2N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is within 45 nm of 3.5N between 10W-16W.
Clusters of scattered moderate convection are within 120 nm
north of the ITCZ between 24W-35W and from 2N to the ITCZ
between 28W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper ridge extends from the Caribbean across central Cuba
and the Florida peninsula to over the east CONUS giving the Gulf
southerly flow aloft. At the surface is a weak surface ridge
extending from the northeast Gulf to the southwest Gulf. A
weakening diurnal surface trough extends from 24N95W to the
coast of south Mexico near 18N94W. This is splitting the main
surface ridge from a 1018 mb high over east Mexico near Tuxpan.
The southerly surface, return flow is generating isolated
showers from 22N-25N between 91W-94W with isolated showers
moving west through the Straits of Florida south of the Florida
Keys. Little change is expected through Thursday, with the
diurnal surface trough developing over the Yucatan peninsula
each night and dissipating in the southwest Gulf each morning. A
cold front may enter the Gulf Thursday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper ridge extends from Colombia across the west Caribbean
and central Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico and west Atlantic.
Difflunce on the west side of this upper ridge coupled with
easterly trade winds are developing scattered to numerous
showers and isolated thunderstorms over the west Caribbean and
portions of Central America from 12N-17N between 80W-87W. The
easterly trade winds are generating a swath of isolated showers
across the basin from 12N-17N from the Lesser Antilles and 80W.
The west Atlantic surface ridge will increase the winds and seas
across the Caribbean through Tuesday then diminish on Wednesday
and Thursday as the ridge shifts east and weakens.

HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers are possible across the Dominican Republic this
afternoon compliments of the easterly trade winds. Fair weather
is expected elsewhere. This scenario will continue through
Thursday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The upper ridge over the Gulf of Mexico covers the west Atlantic
west of 60W. An upper trough north of the area is supporting a
cold front that extends through 32N74W to 31N79W. A weak surface
ridge covers the remainder of the west Atlantic. The upper
trough over the central Atlantic continues to shift northeast
supporting a frontal boundary that has begun to shift north as a
warm front with a surface trough extending from 31N54W to
26N58W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the surface
trough. An upper low is in the east Atlantic just north of the
Canary Islands with an upper trough covering the area north of
25N east of 30W and is supporting a surface trough that extends
from 27N26W to 21N32W. Scattered showers are associated with the
upper low covering the area north of 27N east of 20W to over
west Africa and including the Canary and Madeira Islands. The
west Atlantic surface ridge will persist through Thursday night.
The west Atlantic cold front will clip the north portion of the
basin as it moves into the central Atlantic.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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