[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251147
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
647 AM EST SUN DEC 25 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal sections of Sierra Leone
near 07N12W, to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W to 03N32W
and 03N40W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong, mostly, from 02N to 10N between 20W and 60W.
High level clouds are to the south of 22N17W 20N40W 16N60W,
moving northeastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the area. Comparatively
drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery,
across the entire Gulf of Mexico.

A surface ridge extends from the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico
into the SW corner of the area, near 19N96W in the coastal plains
of Mexico.

A surface trough is along 91W/92W from 15N in western sections of
Guatemala to 25N in the Gulf of Mexico. Convective precipitation:
isolated moderate from 22N to 25N between 90W and 93W. Rainshowers
are possible elsewhere from 22N southward into the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec between 90W and 96W. isolated moderate also is from
22N to 27N between 86W and 90W.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM
27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KBBF, KXIH, KHHV, KVAF, KEMK, KGUL, KEHC, and KGHB.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: MVFR from south to north, with smaller areas of LIFR/IFR.
light rain in Huntsville. LOUISIANA: LIFR in Lake Charles. LIFR
from Baton Rouge, and surrounding Lake Pontchartrain. LIFR in
Patterson, Galliano, Port Fourchon, and in Boothville. IFR in
Lafayette. MVFR in New Iberia. MISSISSIPPI: mostly LIFR from
Natchez-to-Hattiesburg southward to the coast. ALABAMA: LIFR from
Evergreen southward. MVFR in Fort Rucker. FLORIDA: LIFR from
Crestview to Milton and southwestward to the NAS in Pensacola.
light rain in Milton. IFR in Cross City and the Tampa Executive
Airport. LIFR in Punta Gorda.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level SW wind flow is to the south of 15N60W 16N70W 15N80W
12N84W. Upper level easterly wind flow covers the rest of the
Caribbean Sea.

An upper level trough passes through 17N60W to 15N66W 16N70W.
Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 18N southward
from 76W eastward.

Upper level southerly wind flow covers the area that is from 15N
to 20N between 80W and 85W. Convective precipitation: scattered
moderate to isolated strong from 11N to 17N between 79W and 85W,
including the coastal plains and coastal waters of Nicaragua and
Honduras. It is possible that speed convergence may be a
contributing factor to the precipitation.

Upper level southerly wind flow is from Honduras northward from
85W westward to land. Middle level to upper level cyclonic wind
flow is in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, toward the Yucatan
Peninsula. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate is in
Belize and its coastal waters.

24-HOUR rainfall totals in inches for the period ending at
25/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.20 in
Guadeloupe, and 0.07 in Curacao.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level NE wind flow is moving across Hispaniola. Convective
precipitation: Rainshowers are possible across Hispaniola, and in
the coastal waters and coastal plains, in areas of broken low
level to middle level clouds.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo
Domingo/La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR/no ceiling. Santiago and Puerto
Plata: VFR/no ceiling.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that NW wind flow will
move across the area during the next 48 hours. A trough will move
from the SE Bahamas to the E and SE of Hispaniola. A ridge will cut
across SE Cuba, giving the rest of the NE wind flow. The GFS
MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that NE wind flow will move across
the area during the next 48 hours. A ridge will extend from the
Bahamas beyond SE Cuba. The second half of day one will consist of
some E-to-SE wind flow, followed by NE wind flow during all of day
two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that anticyclonic
wind flow will move across the area during the first half of day
one. NE wind flow will move across the area during the rest of the
48-hour forecast period. A NW-to-SE oriented ridge will extend
from the Atlantic Ocean, off the coast of NE Florida, beyond
Hispaniola.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from the Upper Florida Keys to South
Carolina near 34N79W. Convective precipitation: LIFR conditions,
mist, and light rain are being reported from the Jacksonville
Florida metropolitan area, into coastal Georgia and SE South
Carolina.

A central Atlantic Ocean upper level trough is supporting a
stationary front that passes through 32N43W to 27N57W. A
dissipating stationary front continues from 27N57W to 25N64W.
Convective precipitation: Rainshowers are possible to the W and NW
of the frontal boundary.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 28N25W. A
second upper level cyclonic circulation center is near the Canary
Islands near 28N18W. Cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is
from 19N northward from 40W eastward. A surface trough is along
25W/26W from 21N to 29N. Convective precipitation: isolated
moderate from 20N northward between 20W and 30W. widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong from 28N northward between Africa and
20W.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 24N northward, to the
W and NW of the stationary front, and to the east of the Florida-
to-South Carolina surface trough.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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