[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230556
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST FRI DEC 23 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

.None.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the coast of Africa at 08N12W to
06N15W. The ITCZ continues from 06N15W to 02N30W to 03N40W to
the coast of South America at 03N51W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 03N-06N between 30W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is along the coast of Texas from 29N94W to
26N96W. Scattered showers are within 30 nm of the trough.
Elsewhere, the tail end of a cold front is over the Florida
Panhandle from 31N84W to 30.5N87W. This area is void of
precipitation. The remainder of the Gulf of Mexico has 10-15 kt
NE to E surface winds. In the upper levels, an upper level high
is centered over the central Gulf near 24N92W with strong
subsidence. Expect the surface trough along the coast of Texas
to lift north to Texas within the next 12 hours. Expect little
change elsewhere for the next 48 hours.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-20 kt NE surface flow is over the western Caribbean. 15-20 kt
easterly tradewind flow is over the remainder of the Caribbean
Sea. Scattered showers are over the central and eastern
Caribbean between 64W-80W. In the upper levels, NE upper level
flow is over the NW Caribbean with strong subsidence. An upper
level low is centered over E Cuba. Upper level moisture is over
the eastern Caribbean. Expect over the next 24 hours for
precipitation to spread from the Atlantic to the E Caribbean.

...HISPANIOLA...

Presently Hispaniola has fair weather, however, lightning
detection shows thunderstorms are just south of Haiti from 17N-
18N between 72W-74W moving west. Expect more showers and
isolated thunderstorms to be just south of the island over the
next 24 hours.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 0300 UTC, a surface trough extends over the western
Atlantic from 29N72W to 25N77W. Scattered showers are within 30
nm of the trough. Another surface trough is over the central
Atlantic from 29N62W to 22N64W. Scattered showers are within 60
nm of this trough. Elsewhere over the Cape Verde Islands
lightning detection shows a line of thunderstorms from 19N18W to
16N23W. A 1038 mb high is centered near the Azores at 39N20W
with ridge axis extending WSW to 31N55W. Of note in the upper
levels, an upper level low is centered near 27N19W producing
scattered showers over the Canary Islands. Expect in 24 hours
for the tail end of a cold front to be over the central Atlantic
from 32N54W to 28N58W with showers.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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