[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 222351
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
651 PM EST THU DEC 22 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The ITCZ extends from 07N13W to 02N42W. Scattered moderate convection
is from 00N-08N between 24W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is extends across the coast of Texas. A pre-frontal
trough extends from 25N97W to 29N95W to 30N92W. Patchy fog has
been reported in a few stations across the northwest Gulf as the
front approaches. To the southwest, a surface trough extends
across the Bay of Campeche 21N94W to 18N94W with no significant
convection. No deep convection is occurring over the basin and
surrounding land masses due to the stable conditions. Scatterometer
data depicts light easterly winds across the northern half of the
basin north of 25N while gentle to moderate easterly winds prevail
s of 25N. Expect for the front over Texas to remain along the
coast as easterly winds pick up in the northern portion of the
basin in the gentle to moderate ranges. Except for some shower
activity near the Texas coast. Most of the Gulf of Mexico should
remain rain-free during the next two days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The high pressure north of the Caribbean and lower pressure over
northern South America are inducing a moderate north-south
pressure gradient over the basin. This gradient supports moderate to
fresh trades across the area, with the strongest winds prevailing
north of 15N. A mid-level disturbance is developing east of the
Lesser Antilles and combined with abundant moisture is enhancing
cloudiness and isolated showers affecting mainly the Windward
Islands. Expect a similar weather pattern to prevail through the
next 24 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. There is a
slight chance of low-topped showers along the eastern slopes and
higher terrain during the next 48 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends across the western Atlantic from 27N79W
to 29N76W. To the east, a dissipating stationary front was
analyzed from 23N77W to 31N69W. Another surface trough extends
from 30N60W to 23N64W. No significant convection is related to any
of these features at this time. An area of scattered light to
moderate convection prevails east of the Lesser Antilles from
08N-17N between 50W-57W. The remainder of the basin is under the
influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1037 mb centered near
39N20W. Expect for the front in the west Atlantic to begin moving
east through the next 24 hours. Little change is expected across
the remainder of the basin.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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