[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152348
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
648 PM EST THU DEC 15 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W and
continues to 06N16W to 03N20W. The intertropical convergence zone
axis extends from 03N20W to 03N36W to 01N50W. Scattered to
isolated moderate convection is within 120 nm either side of both
the monsoon trough and the ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A middle to upper level trough in the W Atlantic extends SW across
the Florida Peninsula and the E Gulf, thus supporting a cold front
extending from 30N70W to S Florida near 25N81W to 23N89W where it
stalls and continues W to Veracruz, Mexico near 22N98W. Low to
middle level moisture in the SW basin along with upper level
diffluence support scattered to isolated showers in the W Bay of
Campeche. Water vapor, CIRA LPW and SSMI TPW imagery show dry air
across the remainder basin, which is supporting fair weather.
Latest scatterometer and surface data show moderate to locally
fresh N-NE winds N of the frontal boundary and gentle N-NE flow
ahead of it. The cold front will move out of the SE Gulf tonight
while the stationary portion of the boundary will weaken and
dissipate. Surface ridging and return flow will then dominate the
basin through Sunday before sunrise.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Diffluent upper level flow over the SW Caribbean along with low to
middle level moisture in the region support scattered to isolated
showers S of 19N between 76W and 84W, including Jamaica. Shallow
moisture is moving across the far E basin supporting passing
showers E of 65W, moving across Puerto Rico tonight. Gentle to
moderate NE flow covers the NW Caribbean waters ahead of a cold
front over the SE Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong trades are in
the S central waters S of 13N between 74W and 77W. This area of
winds will amplify N and across the E Caribbean Friday night
through Sunday as a strong surface ridge moves off the NE CONUS
to W Atlantic waters.

...HISPANIOLA...

Water vapor, SSMI TPW and CIRA LPW imagery show dry stable air
over the Island, which is supporting fair weather conditions.
Similar weather is forecast for the rest of the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over SW N Atlantic waters extending from a system
of low pressure over NW Atlc waters. The front, which is being
supported by a middle to upper level trough, is along 30N69W to
the northern Bahamas near 26N77W to SE Florida near 25N80W to the
SE Gulf of Mexico. Shallow moisture in the vicinity of the front
may support isolated showers tonight. A broad surface ridge
anchored by a 1032 mb high on the Azores covers the remainder
basin, thus supporting stable and fair weather conditions. The
front is forecast to move to central Atlantic waters by Friday
evening, then will move N of the forecast waters by Sunday
morning.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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