[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151722
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 PM EST THU DEC 15 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the
African coast near 08N12W to 05N17W. The Intertropical
Convergence Zone axis extends from 05N17W to 03N20W to 03N40W to
the coast of South America at 00N50W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 01N-05N between 06W-20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is over the Gulf of Mexico from central Florida at
28N81W to 25N90W to 25N96W. A quasi-stationary front continues
to near Tampico Mexico at 22N98W. Scattered showers are within
90 nm of the front. An area of scattered moderate convection is
just inland from Veracruz Mexico from 17N-19N between 95W-98W.
Winds north of the front northerly at 15 kt. Winds south of the
front are variable at 5 kt. In the upper levels, a broad upper
level trough is over the Gulf supporting the front. Some upper
level moisture is over N Florida, while the rest of the Gulf has
very strong subsidence. Expect the front to extend from the
Straits of Florida to the Central Gulf to S Texas on Friday.
Also expect showers to be over the southern Bay of Campeche
Friday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean with strongest winds
along the coast of N Colombia and lightest winds south of E
Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is over Costa Rica and
Panama. Scattered showers are inland over Honduras ans S
Guatemala. Radar imagery shows scattered showers south of Puerto
Rico. Similar showers are advecting over the Leeward and
Windward Islands from the Atlantic. In the upper levels, an
upper level high is centered over the SE Caribbean near 11N64W
with very strong subsidence. Trades are expected to persist in
the moderate to fresh range through the remainder of the
week...increasing into fresh to strong levels Saturday as strong
high pressure anchors to the north across the SW North Atlantic
waters.

...HISPANIOLA...

Passing isolated showers are noted over SE Hispaniola. Mostly
fair weather is over the remainder of the island. Light to
gentle tradewinds are occurring across the island. 25 kt
zonal flow is noted aloft. These conditions are expected through
Saturday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front with scattered showers is over the W Atlantic from
32N71W to central Florida at 28N81W. A large 1032 mb high is
centered over the Eastern Atlantic near 33N28W with a ridge axis
extending WSW to 25N65W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper
level trough is over the NW Atlantic supporting the cold front.
Elsewhere, an upper level low is centered near 20N38W surrounded
with strong subsidence. Expect the cold front to extend Friday
from 32N56W to 26N65W to the Straits of Florida with showers.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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