[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131741
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1241 PM EST TUE DEC 13 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across the African continentreachingthe
easter Atlantic near 08N15W. The ITCZ begins from that point to
06N30W to 06N48W. A surface trough is embedded within the ITCZ
extending from 09N40W to 06N40W. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 03N-07N between 13W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge anchored by a 1018 mb high centered near 21N97W
and a 1019 mb high centered near 29N85W. A surface trough extends
across the northwest Gulf from 27N97W to 29N96W. Scatterometer
data depicts gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow across the
basin. Expect during the next 24 hours for a cold front to enter
the northwest Gulf enhancing winds/seas/convection. Brief fresh
to strong northeasterly winds are expected behind the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad upper-level anticyclonic circulation is anchored over the
central Caribbean near 17N74W. Water vapor imagery depicts mostly
dry air east of 80W and increased cloudiness and moisture west
of 80W. Scattered moderate convection is observed west of 81W
affecting portions of Nicaragua, Costa Rica, as well as the
Yucatan Peninsula. To the east, mostly clear skies prevail with
only a few quick-moving low-topped isolated showers mostly in the
vicinity of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and adjacent
coastal waters of Hispaniola. Trades are expected to remain in the
fresh to strong range through early Wednesday and then decrease
slightly as the regional pressure gradient relaxes across the
basin.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated quick-moving showers are noted across adjacent coastal
waters associated with shallow moisture. Fresh to strong trade
winds are occurring across the island and the adjacent coastal
waters due to a strong high pressure anchored in the central
Atlantic. These conditions will continue through the next 24
hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends north of our area of discussion enhancing
winds/seas across the western Atlantic mainly west of 70W. A broad
area of high pressure prevails across the remainder of the basin
anchored by a 1030 mb high centered near 34N43W. A dissipating
stationary front extends south of the surface high from 23N50W to
28N33W then a cold front extends from that point to 31N24W.
Isolated showers are observed along the cold front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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