[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131043
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
543 AM EST TUE DEC 13 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to
06N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
06N20W to 03N32W to 03N38W to the Equator near 45W. A surface
trough remains embedded within the ITCZ along 38W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is from the Equator to 09N between
10W-31W. Isolated moderate convection is from 02N-07N between
31W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
West-southwesterly flow aloft is occurring over the Gulf basin
this morning with water vapor imagery indicating mostly dry air
and subsidence providing overall fair sky conditions. At the
surface...a surface ridge anchored by a 1020 mb high centered
across the NE Gulf waters near 28N83W continues to further
support the tranquil conditions...however a stationary front
remains analyzed across the coastal plain from southern Georgia
to eastern Texas. Mostly gentle to occasional moderate southerly
winds are expected through Tuesday night when the stationary front
will begin moving as a cold front across the northern half of the
basin and eventually into the SW North Atlc region by Thursday
night. Brief fresh to strong N-NE winds are expected across the NW
Gulf waters Thursday morning in association with the frontal
passage.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A broad upper level anticyclonic circulation is anchored over the
eastern Caribbean near 16N74W with water vapor imagery indicating
mostly dry air E of 77W and increased cloudiness and moisture W of
77W. As tropical moisture advects northwestward then northward
within the western periphery of the upper level ridging over the
western Caribbean...widely scattered showers and isolated tstms
are occurring mostly S of 21N between 78W-90W...including
portions of Central America and the NW Caribbean waters. Farther
east...mostly clear skies prevail with only a few quick-moving
low-topped isolated showers occurring in the vicinity of the
Lesser Antilles...Puerto Rico...and adjacent coastal waters of
Hispaniola. Trades are expected to remain in the fresh to strong
range through early Wednesday and then decrease slightly as the
regional pressure gradient relaxes across the basin.

...HISPANIOLA...
Passing isolated showers are noted across adjacent coastal waters
this morning associated with very shallow moisture. Fresh to
strong trade winds are also occurring across the island and the
adjacent coastal waters due to strong high pressure anchored in
the central Atlc. These conditions are expected through Wednesday
when surface high pressure will shift eastward and the pressure
gradient relaxes across the region.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
West-southwesterly flow aloft prevails over much of the SW North
Atlc region this morning with overall troughing extending from
over Nova Scotia Canada S-SW to over the northern Florida
peninsula. This troughing supports a cold front analyzed across
the western North Atlc waters to the South Carolina coast near
32N81W. Pre-frontal surface troughing extends from 33N71W SW to
near 29N78W and is providing focus for scattered showers and
widely scattered tstms from 26N-32N between 64W-76W. The cold
front will move eastward and skirt N of 30N through Tuesday night
moving into the central North Atlc waters thereafter. Across the
central Atlc...a surface ridge influences much of the area
anchored by a 1031 mb high centered near 34N46W. Within the
southeastern periphery of the ridging...a weakening frontal
boundary extends as a cold front from 32N26W SW to 28N35W...then
as a dissipating stationary front SW to 24N50W. Isolated showers
and tstms are occurring N of 30N within 90 nm E of the front with
isolated showers possible S of 30N within 90 nm either side of
the front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN

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