[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111133
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EST SUN DEC 11 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal sections of NW Liberia
near 07N11W to 05N14W. The ITCZ continues from 05N14W to 03N17W
and 02N26W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong from 08N southward from 20W eastward, and
from 01N to 09N between 37W and 47W. Rainshowers are possible in
the remainder of the area that is from 10N southward from 60W
eastward.

A surface trough is along 07N27W 04N30W 02N31W. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate from 03N to 08N between 24W and
30W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level SW wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. Comparatively
drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery
within 300 nm to the north of the line that passes through
26N80W 23N90W 22N98W.

A stationary front passes through the Straits of Florida near
23N80W, across NW Cuba, across the Yucatan Channel, across the
northern part of the Yucatan Peninsula, to 19N92W in the SW part
of the Gulf of Mexico. Convective precipitation: broken to
overcast multilayered clouds and possible precipitation are to
the south of the line that passes through 27N82W 26N90W 23N98W.

A Texas coastal surface trough is along 96W/97W from 25N to 29N.
LIFR and IFR cloud ceiling conditions are being reported from
the deep south of Texas to the middle Texas coastal plains,
roughly from Rockport southward.

A surface trough is along the Mexico coast, along 24N97W 21N96W
18N93W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from
24N south from 90W westward.

Surface high pressure passes through parts of south central
Texas, into the coastal plains of Mexico, into the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Gale-force winds are present in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec on the Eastern Pacific Ocean side of
southern Mexico. Please read the Eastern Pacific Ocean HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...and the Eastern Pacific Ocean
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...for more
details.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM
27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KEMK and KHQI.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: LIFR/IFR from Rockport southward into the deep south of
Texas. MVFR/near MVFR from Victoria to Port Lavaca to Palacios.
MVFR in Beaumont/Port Arthur, Conroe, and Huntsville. LOUISIANA
and MISSISSIPPI: VFR. ALABAMA: MVFR in Fort Rucker and Dothan.
FLORIDA: MVFR in Marathon Key. light rain at the NAS in Key
West.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front passes through the Straits of Florida near
23N80W, across NW Cuba, across the Yucatan Channel, across the
northern part of the Yucatan Peninsula, to 19N92W in the SW part
of the Gulf of Mexico. Convective precipitation: broken to
overcast multilayered clouds and possible precipitation are to
the north of the line that passes through 22N82W 19N88W.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow curves into the Caribbean
Sea, from Colombia to Honduras.

A 1009 mb low pressure center is near 10N79W. A surface trough
is along 78W from 17N to the coast of Panama. Convective
precipitation: scattered moderate to strong from 10N to 15N
between 77W and SE Nicaragua along 85W, in the SW corner of the
Caribbean Sea. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 19N
southward from 74W westward.

The 24-HOUR rainfall total in inches for the period ending at
11/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...is 0.26 in
Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level SE wind flow is moving across the island.
Convective precipitation: Rainshowers are possible across
Hispaniola, and in the coastal waters and coastal plains, in
areas of broken low level to middle level clouds. Isolated
moderate to locally strong from 20N to 24N between 58W and 77W,
in the waters that are to the north of Puerto Rico and
Hispaniola and the southern Bahamas.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR/no ceiling. Santo Domingo:
VFR/no ceiling. few cumulonimbus clouds. La Romana: VFR/no
ceiling. Punta Cana: VFR/no ceiling. Santiago: MVFR. ceiling at
1400 feet. Puerto Plata: VFR/no ceiling.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that an anticyclonic
circulation center will be about half-way between the southern
border of Haiti and the Dominican Republic and the eastern part
of Honduras at the start of the 48-hour forecast period. Expect
W-to-NW wind flow during the next 2 days. Broad anticyclonic
wind flow across the island will be at its comparatively
greatest amount during the middle of the day on Monday the 12th,
as the anticyclonic circulation center is forecast to be about
60 nm to the south of the Dominican Republic along 70W/71W.
The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that mostly SE wind flow
will be moving across the area, with brief moments of E-to-SE
wind flow, until about noon on Monday the 12th. NE wind flow
is forecast to move across the island after that time, with a
different E-to-W oriented Atlantic Ocean ridge. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 700 mb shows that an E-to-W oriented Atlantic Ocean
ridge will push SE wind flow across Hispaniola during the next
48 hours, along with a possible inverted trough during the
second half of day two.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N44W to 27N54W to 25N65W. The
front becomes stationary, and it continues from 25N65W, across
the Bahamas and the southern part of Andros Island, to the
Straits of Florida near 23N80W, across NW Cuba, across the
Yucatan Channel, across the northern part of the Yucatan
Peninsula, to 19N92W in the SW part of the Gulf of Mexico.
Convective precipitation: Isolated moderate to locally strong
from 20N to 24N between 58W and 77W, in the waters that are to
the north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola and the southern
Bahamas. Rainshowers are possible to the north of the line that
passes through 32N40W 25N60W 23N80W.

A surface ridge extends from a 1025 mb high pressure center that
is near 34N24W, to 30N35W, to a 1024 mb high pressure center
that is near 26N47W, to 24N60W, 23N70W, across the Bahamas, to
the coast of Cuba near 22N77W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow
covers the Atlantic Ocean to the E and SE of the cold front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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