[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST SUN DEC 11 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal sections of Sierra Leone
near 08N13W to 05N19W. The ITCZ continues from 05N19W to 06N36W,
curving to 03N43W, and NE Brazil near 01N50W. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
07N southward from 18W eastward, and from 02N to 10N between 35W
and 50W.

A surface trough is along 29W/30W from 07N to 15N. Convective
precipitation: no significant deep convective precipitation is
apparent.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level SW wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. Comparatively
drier air in subsiedence is apparent in water vapor imagery
within 300 nm to the north of the line that passes through 26N80W
24N90W 23N98W.

A stationary front passes through the Straits of Florida near
23N80W, across NW Cuba, across the Yucatan Channel, across the
northern part of the Yucatan Peninsula, to 19N92W in the SW part
of the Gulf of Mexico. Convective precipitation: broken to
overcast multilayered clouds and possible precipitation are to
the south of the line that passes through 27N82W 25N90W 23N98W.

A Texas coastal surface trough is along 96W/97W from 25N to 29N.
Low cloud ceilings are being reported from the deep south of
Texas to the middle Texas coastal plains.

A surface trough is along the Mexico coast, along 24N97W 21N96W
18N93W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from
23N south from 90W westward.

Surface high pressure passes through parts of south central
Texas, into the coastal plains of Mexico, into the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Gale-force winds are present in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec on the Eastern Pacific Ocean side of
southern Mexico. Please read the Eastern Pacific Ocean HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...and the Eastern Pacific Ocean
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...for more
details.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM
27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: KVOA.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KGUL, KVQT, KGHB, and KSPR.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: IFR/MVFR in the deep south of Texas. LIFR/IFR in the
middle Texas coastal areas. MVFR from Rockport to Bay City. from
LOUISIANA to ALABAMA: VFR. FLORIDA: light rain and IFR in
Marathon Key. IFR in the Key West metropolitan area.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front passes through the Straits of Florida near
23N80W, across NW Cuba, across the Yucatan Channel, across the
northern part of the Yucatan Peninsula, to 19N92W in the SW part
of the Gulf of Mexico. Convective precipitation: broken to
overcast multilayered clouds and possible precipitation are to
the north of the line that passes through 22N82W 19N88W.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow curves into the Caribbean
Sea, from Colombia to Honduras.

A 1010 mb low pressure center is near 10N81W. Convective
precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong from 14N
between 76W and the coast of Central America.

The 24-HOUR rainfall total in inches for the period ending at
11/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...is 0.26 in
Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level SE wind flow is moving across the island.
Convective precipitation: Rainshowers are possible across
Hispaniola, and in the coastal waters and coastal plains, in
areas of broken low level to middle level clouds.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR/no ceiling. Santo Domingo:
VFR/no ceiling. few cumulonimbus clouds. La Romana: light rain.
Punta Cana: VFR/no ceiling. Santiago: VFR/no ceiling. few
cumulonimbus clouds. Puerto Plata: rainshowers. MVFR. ceiling
at 1600 feet.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that an anticyclonic
circulation center will be about half-way between the southern
border of Haiti and the Dominican Republic and the eastern part
of Honduras at the start of the 48-hour forecast period. Expect
W-to-NW wind flow during the next 2 days. Broad anticyclonic
wind flow across the island will be at its comparatively
greatest amount during the middle of the day on Monday the 12th,
as the anticyclonic circulation center is forecast to be about
60 nm to the south of the Dominican Republic along 70W/71W.
The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that mostly SE wind flow
will be moving across the area, with brief moments of E-to-SE
wind flow, until about noon on Monday the 12th. NE wind flow
is forecast to move across the island after that time, with a
different E-to-W oriented Atlantic Ocean ridge. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 700 mb shows that an E-to-W oriented Atlantic Ocean
ridge will push SE wind flow across Hispaniola during the next
48 hours, along with a possible inverted trough during the
second half of day two.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N46W to 26N60W to 25N71W. The
front becomes stationary, and it continues from 25N71W, across
the Bahamas, to the Straits of Florida near 23N80W, across NW
Cuba, across the Yucatan Channel, across the northern part of
the Yucatan Peninsula, to 19N92W in the SW part of the Gulf of
Mexico. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible to the
north of the line that passes through 32N42W 27N60W 22N79W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean to the
E and SE of the cold front. A surface ridge extends from a is to
the east of the cold front/surface trough.
The ridge passes through 32N12W, across the Canary Islands, to
25N18W, to 22N42W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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