[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
104 AM EST FRI DEC 2 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING WARNING IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website:
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are being forecast for the
areas that are called IRVING and MADEIRA. The OUTLOOK, for the 24
hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 03/0000 UTC,
consists of: the threat of SW near gale or gale in AGADIR and
CANARIAS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal border areas of Sierra
Leone and Guinea, to 07N16W and 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from
06N20W, to 06N25W, 07N31W and 09N40W and 08N44W. A surface trough
is along 12N46W 08N47W 05N48W. Convective precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong from 03N to 10N from 60W
eastward, in areas of disorganized precipitation.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO,
INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A deep layer trough, that was moving through the central and
eventually the eastern U.S.A., now is well to the north of the
area of this bulletin. Large-scale upper level SW wind flow, that
is moving through the area, is part of a larger-scale system of
anticyclonic wind flow that spans the Gulf of Mexico, the
Caribbean Sea, and the Atlantic Ocean from 50W westward. A cold
front passes through the Atlantic Ocean along 32N73W, to Florida
just to the north of Lake Okeechobee, to 26N85W in the eastern
part of the Gulf of Mexico. A stationary front continues from
26N85W, to 24N94W, and 18N94W in the SW corner of the area and the
northern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. A surface trough is
along 28N80W to 23N81W in the Straits of Florida. Convective
precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate in the
Atlantic Ocean from 27N to 29N between 77W and 79W. Rainshowers
are possible elsewhere within 150 nm on either side of the line
that passes through 32N72W 28N77W 23N84W, that extends from the
Atlantic Ocean, across Florida, into the Straits of Florida and
parts of the SE Gulf of Mexico.

Coastal Waters Forecast: TEXAS: small craft advisory from the
Houston/ Galveston NWS office. small craft should exercise caution
elsewhere in the Texas coastal waters. from LOUISIANA to ALABAMA :
small craft should exercise caution in parts of the coastal
waters. FLORIDA: small craft should exercise caution in the waters
of the NWS offices in Tallahassee and Tampa. A small craft
advisory may be required in parts of the coastal waters of the Key
West NWS office.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KATP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

from TEXAS to ALABAMA: VFR. FLORIDA: MVFR at the Ft. Myers General
Airport. IFR at the SW Florida International Airport in Ft.Myers.
light rain in Marathon Key.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level NE wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea that is from
70W eastward. A surface trough is along 18N66W 15N68W 12N68W.
Convective precipitation: Isolated moderate from 10N to 20N
between 60W and 72W.

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the rest of the
Caribbean Sea, from 70W westward. Comparatively drier air in
subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery. High level clouds
are moving toward the north and northeast, away from the land
areas of Central America and South America, from 70W westward.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N, between 74W in Colombia and
beyond SE Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate in the waters that are from 12N
southward from 73W westward.

24-HOUR rainfall totals in inches for the period ending at
02/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 1.38 in
Guadeloupe, and 0.01 in Curacao.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level NE wind flow is moving across the island. Broad upper
level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Caribbean Sea and the
Atlantic Ocean. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent
in water vapor imagery, across the area. Convective precipitation:
Rainshowers are possible across Hispaniola, and in the coastal
waters and coastal plains, in areas of broken low level to middle
level clouds.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR/no ceiling
at 02/0300 UTC. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR/no
ceiling at 02/0000 UTC. Santo Domingo: VFR/no ceiling. few
cumulonimbus clouds. La Romana and Punta Cana: VFR/no ceiling.
Santiago and Puerto Plata: VFR/no ceiling.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that day one will consist
of a ridge that will run from the coastal areas of Colombia near
Panama toward Hispaniola. The ridge will shift westward and run
from the same areas of Colombia and Panama toward SE Cuba. Expect
NW wind flow during both days. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB
shows that E-to-SE wind flow will move across Hispaniola during
day one, with an Atlantic Ocean-to-Hispaniola ridge. Day two will
consist of a separate east-to-west oriented ridge across the area,
which will push NE wind flow across Hispaniola. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 700 mb shows that E and SE wind flow will move across
the area during day one, with an Atlantic Ocean-to-Hispaniola
ridge. Day two will consist of SE wind flow for the first half of
the day, followed by NE wind flow with a SE Florida-to-Hispaniola
ridge.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An Atlantic Ocean upper level trough passes through 32N22W to
28N20W. Another trough is along 26N31W 20N43W 13N53W 07N56W. The
troughs are supporting a cold front that passes through 32N21W to
31N21W. A dissipating cold front continues from 31N21W to 27N26W
and 24N33W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is to the east of the line 11N60W 26N30W beyond 32N19W, and
from 30N northward between 20W and 40W.

A surface ridge extends from a 1020 mb high pressure center that
is near 22N21W, about 360 nm to the NNE of the Cabo Verde
Islands, to 20N35W, to a 1023 mb high pressure center that is near
29N57W, toward the NW Bahamas.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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