[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012332 RRA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
631 PM EST THU DEC 1 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N12W to
07N17W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
07N17W to 06N21W to 08N35W to 07N44W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is from 04N-08N between 03W-15W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 06N-12N between 26W-45W...and from 12N-18N
between 27W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
Broad upper level troughing is noted on water vapor imagery over
the Gulf basin this evening with mid-level W-SW flow aloft
prevailing as well. The troughing supports a cold front analyzed
from across the central Florida peninsula into the eastern Gulf
waters near Tampa Bay then W-SW to 26N87W then continues W-SW as a
stationary front to 23N94W then southward to the Mexico coast near
18N94W. Widely scattered showers and isolated tstms are noted on
regional Doppler radar mosaic imagery S of the cold front across
the Florida peninsula and across portions of the SE Gulf waters.
Isolated showers are also possible within 180 nm N of the
stationary front as it becomes more diffuse through early Friday.
By Friday...high pressure will be anchored across the SE CONUS
with moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevailing across much of the
basin. Lingering weak surface troughing however will remain across
the far portions of the SW Gulf along the coast of Mexico.
Easterly winds will increase on Friday across the NW Gulf as an
area of low pressure develops across extreme southern Texas and
northern Mexico. The associated cold front will emerge off the
Texas coast by early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
An upper level anticyclonic circulation is centered over the
north-central Caribbean near 17N71W with water vapor imagery
indicating relatively dry and stable air prevailing over much of
the basin this evening. Mostly surface based features are
generating areas of cloudiness and generally low-topped showers as
a surface trough is analyzed across the NE Caribbean from 15N63W
to 19N64W and another surface trough analyzed across Hispaniola
and the adjacent coastal waters. Otherwise...the strongest
convective activity is associated with the Monsoon Trough axis
analyzed from northern Colombia to Costa Rica with scattered
showers and tstms occurring S of 12N. Finally...moderate to fresh
trades prevail and are expected to persist through the weekend.

...HISPANIOLA...
A surface trough extends across the western portion of the island
providing focus for possible isolated showers this evening and
through the overnight hours. Otherwise...a dry and stable
anticyclonic circulation is centered S of the island near 17N71W
providing mostly fair conditions which are expected to persist.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Southwesterly flow aloft prevails within the southern periphery of
an upper level low centered over the New England states and
Canadian Maritimes this evening supporting a cold front extending
into the discussion area near 32N77W. The front extends SW to the
Florida peninsula near Cape Canaveral and into the Gulf of Mexico.
Scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring N of 24N W of
74W. Otherwise...the remainder of the SW North Atlc is under the
influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1021 mb high centered
near 30N57W. This ridge also prevails across much of the central
Atlc waters as well. Farther east...a middle to upper level trough
is noted on water vapor imagery in the vicinity of 34N29W that
supports a dissipating cold front 32N25W SW to 26N30W to 20N46W.
The cold front remains rather benign however isolated showers are
occurring N of 30N between 15W-30W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net