[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011203
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
703 AM EST THU DEC 1 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website:
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are being forecast for the
area that is called IRVING. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that
follow the forecast that is valid until 02/1200 UTC, consists of:
the threat of N or NW near gale or gale in the W part of IRVING;
the threat of cyclonic severe gale or storm in the NE part of
IRVING and the NW part of MADEIRA; and the threat of near gale or
gale in AGADIR and the N part of CANARIAS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal border areas of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W TO 06N15W. The ITCZ continues from 06N15W, to
05N18W, 06N23W and 03N35W. A 1011 mb low pressure center is near
07N46W. A surface trough extends from the low center to 10N44W and
to 13N43W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong from 10N southward, from 60W eastward, in areas of
disorganized precipitation.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A deep layer trough is in the central U.S.A. Upper level SW wind
flow, that is moving through the area, is part of a larger-scale
system of anticyclonic wind flow that spans the Gulf of Mexico and
the Caribbean Sea. A cold front passes through Florida near
30N83W, into the central Gulf of Mexico, into the SW corner of
the area and the northern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec.
Blowing sand was being reported in Veracruz in Mexico as late as
the 01/0444 UTC surface observation. Small craft should exercise
caution in the coastal waters from LOUISIANA to ALABAMA.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: none.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: IFR in Jasper. from LOUISIANA to ALABAMA: VFR. FLORIDA:
IFR at the St. Pete-Clearwater International Airport. MVFR in
Sarasota. LIFR in Punta Gorda and in parts of the Ft.Myers
metropolitan area.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the SE corner of the area,
with the same cyclonic circulation center that was in the NE
corner of the Caribbean Sea during the last few days, with a
trough. A NE-to-SW oriented surface trough is along 20N58W 19N63W
16N65W 12N67W. Convective precipitation: Isolated moderate from
18N southward between 60W and 70W.

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the rest of the
Caribbean Sea, from 70W westward, away from the cyclonic
circulation center that is in the SE corner of the area.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, elsewhere. High level clouds are moving toward the north
and northeast, to the SW of the line that runs from 13N71W to SE
Cuba.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N, between 74W in Colombia and
beyond NW Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Convective
precipitation: numerous strong from 10N southward between 80W and
land.

24-HOUR rainfall totals in inches for the period ending at
01/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.34 in
Curacao, and 0.07 in Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is moving across the island.
An upper level anticyclonic circulation center is just to the
east of the NW Bahamas, with a ridge extending to Hispaniola.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, across the area. A surface trough is along 20N66W in the
Atlantic Ocean, through the Mona Passage, to 16N69W in the
Caribbean Sea. Convective precipitation: Rainshowers are possible
across Hispaniola, and in the coastal waters and coastal plains,
in areas of broken low level to middle level clouds.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona:
VFR/no ceiling. Santo Domingo: MVFR. ceiling at 1600 feet. few
cumulonimbus clouds. La Romana: light rain. Punta Cana: VFR/no
ceiling. few cumulonimbus clouds. Santiago: MVFR. ceiling at 1500
feet. Puerto Plata: MVFR. ceiling at 1700 feet.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that anticyclonic wind
flow will be moving across Hispaniola for the next 36 hours or so,
followed by NW wind flow. An anticyclonic circulation center will
move across the island, and then to the south of the island, in
the central Caribbean Sea. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB
shows that NE-to-E wind flow will move across Hispaniola during
day one. An anticyclonic circulation center will be about 380 nm
to the north of Haiti. Expect E-to-SE wind flow during day two,
until the end of the day. A ridge will bring NE wind flow at the
end of the day. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that E and
SE wind flow will move across the area during day one, with an
Atlantic Ocean anticyclonic circulation center that will be about
730 nm to the NE of Hispaniola. Day two will consist of SE wind
flow for the first half of the day. An inverted trough will move
across Hispaniola during the second half of day two.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 21N
northward between 48W and the U.S.A. east coast. A 1022 mb high
pressure center is near 31N61W, about 180 nm to the ESE of
Bermuda.

An Atlantic Ocean upper level trough passes through 32N32W to
23N36W, to 13N47W and 06N49W. This trough is supporting a
dissipating cold front that passes through 31N31W to 24N36W, and
20N48W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong within 400 nm on either side of 10N38W 20N25W
beyond 32N26W. Isolated moderate from 10N to 21N between 50W and
60W.

A surface ridge extends from a 1020 mb high pressure center that
is near 27N16W, to the Cabo Verde Islands.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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