[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST THU DEC 1 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is in the Gulf of Mexico along 30N86W 22N95W 18N94W.
Expect gale-force NW-to-N winds and sea heights reaching 10 feet
to the S of 22N to the W of the cold front. The gale-force wind
conditions are expected to diminish to less than gale-force during
the next few hours. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast
product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website:
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are being forecast for the
area that is called IRVING. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that
follow the forecast that is valid until 02/0000 UTC, consists of:
the persistence of westerly near gale or gale in IRVING and
MADEIRA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal border areas of Sierra
Leone and Liberia to 06N13W. The ITCZ continues from 06N13W, to
05N18W, 06N31W, 09N39W, 07N47W and 04N51W at the coast of Brazil
near French Guiana. A 1011 mb low pressure center is near 08N44W.
A surface trough extends from the low center to 14N43W. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 10N
southward, from 60W eastward, in areas of disorganized
precipitation.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A deep layer trough is in the central U.S.A. Upper level SW wind
flow, that is moving through the area, is part of a larger-scale
system of anticyclonic wind flow that spans the Gulf of Mexico and
the Caribbean Sea. A cold front passes through the Florida Big
Bend, into the north central Gulf of Mexico, into the SW corner of
the area. Gale-force winds have been associated with this front.
Blowing sand is being reported in Veracruz in Mexico. Small craft
should exercise caution from the middle Texas Gulf coast
southward, and from LOUISIANA to ALABAMA.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: none.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: LIFR in Jasper. from LOUISIANA to ALABAMA: VFR. FLORIDA:
rain has ended for the moment in Tallahassee and Perry. MVFR in
Perry. IFR in Cross City. LIFR in Punta Gorda.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the SE corner of the area,
with the same cyclonic circulation center that has been in the NE
corner of the Caribbean Sea during the last few days, with a
trough. A NE-to-SW oriented surface trough is along 20N60W 16N64W
12N67W. Convective precipitation: Isolated moderate from 18N
southward between 60W and 70W.

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the rest of the
Caribbean Sea, from 70W westward, away from the cyclonic
circulation center that is in the SE corner of the area.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, elsewhere. High level clouds are moving northward, to
the SW of the line that runs from 13N72W to SE Cuba.

The monsoon trough is along 10N, between 74W in Colombia and
beyond NW Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate from 12N southward from 75W
westward.

24-HOUR rainfall totals in inches for the period ending at
01/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.34 in
Curacao, and 0.07 in Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is moving across the island.
An upper level anticyclonic circulation center is just to the
east of the NW Bahamas, with a ridge extending to Hispaniola.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, across the area. A surface trough is along 20N66W in the
Atlantic Ocean, through the Mona Passage, to 16N68W in the
Caribbean Sea. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to
isolated strong within a 15 nm to 30 nm radius of 19N68.5W in the
eastern coastal sections of the Dominican Republic. Rainshowers
are possible across Hispaniola, and in the coastal waters and
coastal plains, in areas of broken low level to middle level
clouds.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR/no
ceiling. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR/no ceiling. Santo
Domingo: MVFR. ceiling at 1600 feet. few cumulonimbus clouds. La
Romana: light rain. Punta Cana: earlier rain has ended. VFR/no
ceiling. few cumulonimbus clouds. Santiago: light rain. Puerto
Plata: light rain.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that anticyclonic wind
flow will be moving across Hispaniola for the next 36 hours or so,
followed by NW wind flow. An anticyclonic circulation center will
move across the island, and then to the south of the island, in
the central Caribbean Sea. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB
shows that NE-to-E wind flow will move across Hispaniola during
day one. An anticyclonic circulation center will be about 380 nm
to the north of Haiti. Expect E-to-SE wind flow during day two,
until the end of the day. A ridge will bring NE wind flow at the
end of the day. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that E and
SE wind flow will move across the area during day one, with an
Atlantic Ocean anticyclonic circulation center that will be about
730 nm to the NE of Hispaniola. Day two will consist of SE wind
flow for the first half of the day. An inverted trough will move
across Hispaniola during the second half of day two.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 22N
northward between 45W and the U.S.A. east coast. A 1024 mb high
pressure center is near 32N61W, about 200 nm to the east of
Bermuda.

An Atlantic Ocean upper level trough passes through 32N34W to
23N38W, to 13N48W and 06N50W. This trough is supporting a
dissipating cold front that passes through 32N33W to 27N35W, and
23N41W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong within 400 nm on either side of 10N38W 20N25W
28N26W beyond 32N28W. Isolated moderate from 10N to 21N between
50W and 60W.

A surface ridge extends from a 1019 mb high pressure center that
is near 25N17W, to the Cabo Verde Islands.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mt
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