[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151041
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
641 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic with axis extending 16N25W
to a 1010 mb surface low near 11N25W to 07N25W, moving west at
10-15 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave is in a very moist
environment with favorable deep-layer wind shear that along with
diffluent flow in the upper levels support scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms from 06N-12N between 25W-31W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis 21N44W to
09N44W, moving west at 15-20 kt within the last 24 hours. TPW
imagery shows dry air intrusion within this wave which continues
to hinder convection at this time.

A tropical wave is moving across the E Caribbean with axis
extending from 18N64W to 10N64W, moving west at 15 kt within the
last 24 hours. The presence of Saharan dust and dry air coupled
with the unfavorable deep-layer wind shear that prevails across the
E Caribbean, are limiting the convection associated with this
wave to isolated showers from 13N-15N between 63W-69W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 16N17W to
11N25W to 11N35W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from
11N35W to 06N54W. Aside from the convection related to the
tropical wave/low system along 25W, no significant activity is
related to any of the boundaries at this time.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level low centered over the northeast portion of the
basin near 28N85W enhancing convection across the eastern Gulf
mainly east of 89W. To the southwest; a surface trough extends
across the Bay of Campeche from 22N92W to 19N94W with isolated
showers along it. A diffluent flow aloft across northern Central
America and southern Mexico is supporting isolated showers and
thunderstorms that are moving over the southwest Gulf waters
mainly south of 21N. The remainder of the basin is under the
influence of a surface ridge that extends from the Atlantic across
the northern Gulf. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate
anticyclonic winds across the basin. Little change is expected
during the next 24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean. Please
refer to the section above for details. Upper-level diffluence
prevails across portion of the western Caribbean enhancing
convection across the adjacent waters north of Honduras, Jamaica, and
southern Cuba. To the south; the proximity of the Monsoon Trough
is supporting scattered moderate convection south of 12N and west
of 77W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades
across the basin except fresh to strong winds south of 16N between
66W-73W. Expect through the next 24 hours for the tropical wave
to continue moving west enhancing convection across the Lesser
Antilles, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected during the next 24-48 hours as a
tropical wave approaches from the east.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to the
section above for details. Isolated convection prevails over the
western Atlantic west of 74W supported by a diffluent flow aloft.
To the east; a surface trough extends from 28N74W to 31N72W. The
remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge
anchored by three highs centered along 65W. Expect during the next
24 hours for the tropical waves to continue moving west.
Convection will prevail along the wave currently located along
25W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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