[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150538
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
138 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic with axis extending 16N21W to
a 1009 mb surface low near 10N20W to 07N20W, moving west at 10-15
kt within the last 18 hours. The wave is in a very moist
environment with favorable deep-layer wind shear that along with
diffluent flow in the upper levels support scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms from 07N-13N between 21W-29W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis 21N41W to
09N41W, moving west at 20-25 kt within the last 24 hours. TPW
imagery shows dry air intrusion within this wave which is
hinderingconvection at this time.

A tropical wave is entering the E Caribbean with axis extending from
17N62W to 10N62W, moving west at 15 kt within the last 24 hours.
The presence of Saharan dust and dry air coupled with unfavorable
deep-layer wind shear in the E Caribbean is limiting the
convection associated with this wave to isolated showers from
12N-15N between 62W-67W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 12N17W to
08N37W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 08N37W to
the coast of Venezuela near 09N61W. Aside from the convection
related to the tropical wave/low system along 21W, no significant
activity is related to any of the boundaries at this time.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level low centered over the northeast portion of the
basin near 29N85W enhancing convection across the eastern Gulf
mainly east of 86W. To the southwest; a pair of surface troughs
extend across the Bay of Campeche with isolated showers. A
diffluent flow aloft across northern Central America and southern
Mexico is supporting scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms that are moving over the southwest Gulf waters
mainly south of 20N. The remainder of the basin is under the
influence of a surface ridge that extends from the Atlantic across
the northern Gulf. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate
anticyclonic winds across the basin. Little change is expected
during the next 24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean. Please
refer to the section above for details. Upper-level diffluence
prevails across portion of the western Caribbean enhancing
convection across the adjacent waters north of Honduras, Jamaica, and
southern Cuba. To the south; the proximity of the Monsoon Trough
is supporting scattered moderate convection south of 12N and west
of 79W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across
the basin except fresh to strong winds south of 16N between 66W-
73W. Expect through the next 24 hours for the tropical wave to
continue moving west enhancing convection across the Lesser
Antilles, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated convection is observed over the southwestern portion of
the island at this time. This activity will dissipate overnight.
Showers are expected during the next 24-48 hours as a tropical
wave approaches from the east.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to the
section above for details. Isolated convection prevails over the
western Atlantic west of 77W supported by a diffluent flow aloft.
To the east; a surface trough extends from 28N74W to 32N71W. The
remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge
anchored by three highs centered along 65W. Expect during the next
24 hours for the tropical waves to continue moving west.
Convection will prevail along the wave currently located along
21W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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