[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082353
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
753 PM EDT MON AUG 8 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Atlantic with axis
extending from 19N32W to 10N29W, moving west near 10 kt over the
past 24 hours. This wave coincides with a well defined 700 mb
trough as depicted in the global models between 27W-33W and is
somewhat co-located within a moderate surge of moisture as seen
on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep
convection is noted with the wave at this time as Saharan dust and
dry air prevail in the area.

A tropical wave was analyzed across the central Atlantic with
axis extending from 18N51W to 10N52W, moving west near 15 kt over
the past 24 hours. The 700 mb trough associated with this wave is
not as well defined as the previous wave. The moisture surge
associated with this wave is more subtle and confined to near the
ITCZ. Saharan dust and dry air is also in the environment of this
wave which inhibits convection at this time.

A tropical wave extends across the western Caribbean with axis from
20N82W to 09N83W, moving west at 10 to 15 kt over the past 24
hours. Wave coincides with a subtle 700 mb trough as depicted in
the global models and is embedded within a surge moisture as seen
on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep
convection is noted.

A tropical wave is moving over central America and the adjacent
EPAC with axis extending from 19N91W to 10N92W, moving west near
10 kt over the past 24 hours. This wave is embedded within an
overall moist environment as depicted in SSMI Total Precipitable
Water imagery. Scattered moderate convection is observed across
the southern portion of the wave affecting the EPAC waters south
from 08N to 12N between 90W and 94W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 19N16W and continues to 10N30W to 10N39W where the
ITCZ begins and continues to 10N58W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is observed in an area from 07N to 10N between 24W and
30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A tropical wave is moving across the extreme eastern portion of
the Bay of Campeche. Please refer to the section above for
details. A surface trough extends from a broad 1010 mb surface low
over south-central Alabama across the Florida Panhandle near
30N87W to 29N89W. a broad fetch of southwesterly winds covers the
Gulf north of 26N and east of 91W with diffluent flow aloft
prevailing over much of the same area. As a result a large swath
of multilayered clouds with embedded showers and weakening
thunderstorms cover the eastern half of the Gulf and
southeastern U.S. This overall pattern is expected to persist
over the several days resulting in very heavy rainfall over
portions of the Florida panhandle and the deep south. The
remainder of the basin is under the influence of a subtle surface
ridge that extends west om the west Atlantic, across South Florida
to northeast Mexico. Over the next 24 hours the tropical wave is
forecast to move west into the EPAC.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the western portion of the basin.
Please refer to the section above for details. Isolated showers
are observed over the south-central Caribbean waters enhanced by
the proximity of the Monsoon Trough mainly south of 11N between
77W-83W. The edge of a 1446 UTC ASCAT scatterometer pass depicted
moderate to fresh trades across the basin from 11N to 16N between
70W and 74W. Generally fair skies prevailed over the basin
beneath moderate to locally strong subsidence. Over the next 24
hours the tropical wave to continue moving west away from the
Caribbean waters with the next tropical wave forecast to enter
the east Caribbean by Wednesday.

...HISPANIOLA...

An isolated thunderstorm has erupted over east-central Haiti in
an otherwise overall fair weather pattern. The upper ridge
currently over the west/central Atlantic will drift southwest to
over the island by tonight then continue west of the island
through midweek. Afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms
scenario will dominate the island through midweek.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to
the section above for details. An upper-level low is centered
north of the Bahama Islands near 29N78W with an associated
trough extending southward to east-central Cuba. This feature is
enhancing isolated showers over the far west Atlantic mainly west
of 76W. To the east, a surface trough extends from 29N70W to
24N72W with scattered moderate convection mainly east of the
surface trough from 24N to 28N between 67W and 72W. A 1020 mb
surface high is centered to the east of the trough near 28N62W. A
dissipating stationary front extends across the central Atlantic
from 32N40W to 28N66W with no significant weather. The remainder
of the east Atlantic is dominated by a surface ridge associated
with high pressure well to the northeast of the area. Over the next
24 hours the western Atlantic surface trough will drift
northwest and weaken. Little change is expected elsewhere.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Cobb
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net