[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081717
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
117 PM EDT MON AUG 8 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Atlantic with axis
extending from 19N31W to 10N27W, moving west near 10 kt over the
past 24 hours. This wave coincides with a well defined 700 mb
trough as depicted in the global models between 20W-30W and is
within moderate surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total
Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection is
noted with the wave at this time as Saharan dust and dry air
prevail in the area.

A tropical wave was analyzed across the central Atlantic with
axis extending from 17N49W to 10N50W, moving west near 15 kt over
the past 24 hours. The wave coincides with a well defined 700 mb
trough as depicted in the global models and is embedded within a
low amplitude surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total
Precipitable Water imagery. Saharan dust and dry air is also in
the environment of this wave which inhibits convection at this
time.

A tropical wave extends across the western Caribbean with axis from
21N80W to 09N80W, moving west near 15 kt over the past 24 hours.
Wave coincides with 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models
and is embedded within a surge moisture as seen on the SSMI Total
Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection is
noted.

A tropical wave is moving over the Yucatan Peninsula and the EPAC
with axis extending from 20N90W to 10N90W, moving west near 15
kt over the past 24 hours. Moderate moisture prevails in this
wave's environment as noted in SSMI Total Precipitable Water
imagery. Isolated convection is observed across the southern
portion of the wave affecting the EPAC waters south of 12N between
88W-91W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 19N16W and continues to 10N27W to 08N38W where the
ITCZ begins and continues to 10N54W. Isolated moderate convection
is observed within 100 nm to the north of these boundaries
between 28W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A tropical wave is moving across the southern portion of the
Yucatan Peninsula. Please refer to the section above for details. A
diffluent flow aloft prevails across the eastern portion of the
basin enhancing scattered moderate convection mainly north of 24N
and east of 91W. To the north of this activity, a surface trough
extends from the Florida Panhandle near 30N86W to 29N88W with
scattered moderate convection. The remainder of the basin is
under the influence of a weak surface ridge that extends west from
the west Atlantic, across South Florida to northeast Mexico.
Scatterometer data depicts a gentle to moderate southeasterly flow
across the basin. Expect within the next 24 hours for the
tropical wave to move west into the EPAC with convection. Little
change is expected elsewhere.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the western portion of the basin.
Please refer to the section above for details. Isolated showers
are observed over the south-central Caribbean waters enhanced by
the proximity of the Monsoon Trough mainly south of 11N between
79W-84W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades
across most of the basin except between 68W-78W where fresh to
strong winds prevail. Expect during the next 24 hours for the tropical
wave to continue moving west away from the Caribbean waters. The
next tropical wave will enter the east Caribbean by Wednesday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. The upper
ridge currently over the west/central Atlantic will drift
southwest to over the island by tonight then continue west of the
island through midweek. Afternoon/evening showers and
thunderstorms scenario will dominate the island through midweek.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to
the section above for details. An upper-level low is centered
north of the Bahama Islands near 28N78W and extends its trough
south to central Cuba. This feature is enhancing isolated showers
over the far west Atlantic mainly west of 76W. To the east, a
surface trough extends from 29N70W to 23N72W with scattered
moderate convection from 25N- 28N between 67W-74W. A 1020 mb
surface high is centered to the east of the trough near 25N62W. A
stationary front extends across the central Atlantic from 26N46W
to 32N40W with no significant convection associated to it. The
remainder of the east Atlantic is dominated by a surface ridge. Expect
during the next 24 hours for the west Atlantic surface trough to drift
northwest. Little change is expected elsewhere.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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