[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062351
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the eastern tropical Atlantic just west
of the Cabo Verde Islands. The axis extends from near 20N24W to
10N25W, moving westward at around 20 kt over the past 24 hours.
This wave is embedded in a poleward surge of moderate moisture
with 700 mb troughing evident in model fields between 20W and
26W. No deep convection is currently noted with this wave.

A low amplitude tropical wave is over the eastern tropical
Atlantic with axis along 40W/41W from 08N to 14N, moving
westward at around 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Abundant
moisture surrounds this wave south of 10N as noted on the TPW
product. A tilted 700 mb trough is evident across this region.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 05N to 10N
between 38W and 45W.

A well defined tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean with
axis extending along 69W, moving westward at around 20 to 25 kt
over the past 24 hours. The wave is generating some convective
activity over parts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, including the
Mona Passage. This wave is well depicted in 700 mb streamlines
and the TPW product, where a high amplitude northward bulge of
moisture is seen. The San Juan Doppler radar shows scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms across the area. The wave is
also producing disorganized cloudiness and showers just north of
Puerto Rico and the adjacent Atlantic waters. This activity is
expected to move northwestward and northward, and an area of low
pressure could form in the Atlantic by the middle of next week
between Florida and Bermuda. This wave will move across the
central Caribbean Sunday through Monday, and through the western
Caribbean Tuesday and Wednesday.

A weak tropical wave is over the central Caribbean and extends
from eastern Cuba across Jamaica to near 11N77W, moving westward
at around 20 kt over the past 24 hours. This wave is at the
leading edge of a surge of deep moisture, and is subtly depicted
in 700 mb model streamlines. The wave is helping to induce
scattered showers and probably isolated thunderstorms over parts
of eastern Cuba and Jamaica. This wave will move west across the
central Caribbean through tonight and across the western
Caribbean on Sun.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east tropical
Atlantic near 17N16W and continues along 12N20W to 11N30W to
09N39W. The ITCZ begins near 09N42W and continues to 10N51W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 11N between 45W and
48W. Similar convection is within about 15 nm of a line
09N50W to 08N53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Earl dissipate this morning over the mountains of Mexico and the
last advisory was issued at 06/1500 UTC. The remnants of Earl
are still supporting scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms over parts of west-central Mexico where a surface
trough is analyzed on the 18Z surface map. Another surface
trough is over the northeastern Gulf, extending from the western
Florida Panhandle to near 27N88W. This trough supports scattered
showers and thunderstorms over the NE Gulf of Mexico and parts
of northern Florida. A diffluent pattern aloft is also helping
to support this convective activity. Some slight development of
this cloudiness with embedded thunderstorms is possible before
the system moves inland over the southeastern United States in a
couple of days. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall over
northern Florida is anticipated. A weak ridge dominates the
remainder of the Gulf region with a 1017 mb high pressure
located near 27N91W. The ridge is producing variable and light
winds over the north-central Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE
winds are noted mainly south of 24N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A pair of tropical wave are moving westward across the basin.
Please refer to the tropical waves section for details. Moderate
to fresh trade winds are blowing across much of the east and
central Caribbean. Winds are forecast to increase to 20-25 kt on
Monday in association with the passage of the tropical wave
currently located along 69W. Over the next 24 hours convection
will spread across the central Caribbean in association with
this tropical wave forecast to reach eastern Cuba on Sunday. On
Tuesday, fresh to strong winds in the 20-30 kt range and
building seas up to 11-12 ft are forecast by the computer models
to dominate the south-central Caribbean.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are spreading across the
Dominican Republic in association with the tropical wave
currently located along 69W. Showers and thunderstorms will
increase in coverage over the remainder of Hispaniola tonight
and Sunday with the passage of the wave.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Atlantic is dominated by a weak surface ridge, with a couple
of 1020 mb highs located near 30N35W and near 26N61W. A weakness
in the ridge between these highs is occurring due to a frontal
system that has entered the forecast area. The front extends
from 31N42w to 30N46W to beyond 31N51W. Scattered showers are
noted ahead of the frontal boundary. Two tropical waves are also
over the eastern Atlantic. Please refer to the tropical waves
section for more details. Over the next 24 hours convection will
continue along the northern portion of the waves and near the
frontal system over the central Atlantic.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
GR
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