[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061741
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
141 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Earl has dissipated as of 1500 UTC over
interior Mexico.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the eastern tropical Atlantic with an axis
that extends from near 21N23W to 10N23W, moving westward at
around 20 kt over the past 24 hours. This wave is embedded in a
poleward surge of moderate moisture with 700 mb troughing evident
in model fields between 19W and 25W. No deep convection is
currently noted with this wave.

A tropical wave is over the eastern tropical Atlantic with an axis
that extends from near 14N37W to 05N37W, moving westward at
around 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours. High moisture surrounds
this wave south of 10N. A tilted 700 mb trough is evident across
this region. Numerous moderate convection is from 05N to 10N
between 34W and 39W.

A tropical wave is over the sw north Atlantic and eastern
Caribbean with an axis that extends from near 22N66W to 11N68W,
moving westward at around 20 to 25 kt over the past 24 hours. This
wave is depicted well in 700 mb streamlines in model fields, and
coincides with the greatest poleward extent of convection in the
area. Isolated moderate convection is from 16N to 23N between 63W
and 71W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere within
300 nm of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is over the sw north Atlantic and central Caribbean
with an axis that extends from near 22N73W to 11N74W, moving
westward at around 20 kt over the past 24 hours. This wave is at
the leading edge of a surge of deep moisture, and is subtly
depicted in 700 mb model streamlines. No deep convection is noted
with this wave.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east tropical
Atlantic near 19N16W and continues along 13N19W to 09N30W to
09N34W. The ITCZ begins near 08N39W and continues to 09N55W.
Isolated moderate convection is from 10N to 13N between 17W and
21W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 12N between 39W
and 44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The remnants of Earl are supporting scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms over the southwestern Gulf south of 25N west of
93W. A surface trough is over the northeastern Gulf, extending
from near 28N83W to 29N88W. This trough and upper level diffluence
supports scattered moderate convection from 26N to 30N east of
88W, and scattered showers and thunderstorms from 28N to 30N
between 88W and 93W. A weak ridge axis continues to extend from central
Florida to the central Gulf, then to the northern Texas coast.
Variable gentle to moderate winds cover the northeastern Gulf.
Light to gentle winds cover the remainder of the Gulf north of
a line from 22N85W to 27N97W. Moderate southeasterly winds are
south of this line. Over the next 24 hours the trough over the
northeastern Gulf will persist with ongoing convection and
perhaps develop a surface low.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A diffluent environment over the western Caribbean continues to
support scattered moderate convection south of 18N west of 80W. A
tropical wave is over the central Caribbean, and another wave is
over the eastern Caribbean, including Puerto Rico. Please refer
to the tropical waves section for more details. Mainly moderate trades
cover the Caribbean this afternoon. Over the next 24 hours
convection will spread across the central Caribbean associated
with the eastern-most tropical wave.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are spreading across the
Dominican Republic today ahead of a tropical wave. Showers and
thunderstorms will increase in coverage over the remainder of
Hispaniola through tonight as the tropical wave currently over
Puerto Rico crosses the island.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Atlantic is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1019 mb
high near 29N35W and a 1020 mb high near 27N66W. A weakness in the
ridge between these highs is occurring due to a frontal system
just north of our area of discussion, with a pre-frontal trough
extending from 30N42W to 28N50W. Scattered moderate convection is
north of 28N between 42W and 52W. The northern portion of two
tropical waves are over the sw north Atlantic. Two tropical waves
are also over the eastern Atlantic. Please refer to the tropical
waves section for more details. Over the next 24 hours convection
will continue along the northern portion of the waves over the sw
north Atlantic. Convection will also continue near the frontal
system and pre-frontal trough over the central Atlantic.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
LATTO
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