[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060004
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
804 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Earl is centered near 18.8N 95.0W at 05/2100 UTC
or about 48 nm NW of Coatzacoalcos, Mexico moving west at 7 kt.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gust to 60 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Earl will move
inland into the Mexican state of Veracruz later tonight. Numerous
moderate to strong convection with scattered tstms are occurring S
of 22N W of 92W. Scattered heavy showers and tstms are in the E
Gulf of Campeche S of 20N. Earl is expected to produce total
rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches over portions of the
Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Puebla, Tabasco and Veracruz
through Saturday morning with possible isolated maximum amounts of
18 inches. These rains could result in life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides. Please see the latest NHC Intermediate
Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC and
the full forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave is inland W Africa with axis near 16W. Global models
wave diagnostics indicate this wave will come off the coast later
tonight. Satellite derived data indicate the wave is in a
favorable to neutral deep layer wind shear region. However,
Saharan dry air and dust are wrapping the wave axis to the N and
NW, thus limiting the convection to a cluster of heavy showers
from 09N-12N between 16W and 19W.

Tropical wave is in the central Atlantic from 06N-16N with axis
near 32W, moving W at 20 kt within the last 24 hours. Satellite
derived data indicate the wave is in a favorable deep layer wind
shear region. However, Saharan dry air and dust are in the
northern wave environment, thus limiting the convection to
scattered showers from 05N-10N between 28W and 37W.

Tropical wave extends from 08N-20N with axis near 58W, moving W
at 25 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave remains in a
favorable deep layer wind shear region that along with a diffluent
environment aloft support scattered showers and tstms from 16N-19N
between 59W and 65W. Showers are expected to affect Puerto Rico
and adjacent waters tonight and Saturday.

Tropical wave extends from 10N-20N with axis near 68W, moving W
at 20 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave remains in a region
of favorable deep layer wind shear that along with diffluent flow
aloft support scattered heavy showers and isolated tstms from
17N-21N between 66W and 73W. Showers will continue across
Hispaniola tonight and Saturday morning. The wave will move to the western
Caribbean Saturday before moving west of the sea on Sun.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east tropical
Atlantic near 14N17W and continues along 10N27W to 06N38W where
the ITCZ begins and then continues to 08N54W. Aside from the
convection associated with the tropical waves...scattered
moderate convection is from 05N-11N between 21W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Tropical Storm Earl continues to affect the SW Gulf waters.
Please refer to the special features section for more details.
Diffluent regions within the SE periphery of an upper level anticyclone
centered near southern Mississippi support scattered showers and
isolated tstms over the NE Gulf N of 25N E of 90W. Strong dry air
subsidence support clear skies and fair weather elsewhere. Surface
ridging continues to dominate the northern region of the basin
being anchored by a 1016 mb high centered near 28N91W, which
provides gentle variable winds N of 25N. Earl will move
inland into the Mexican state of Veracruz later tonight. Numerous
moderate to strong convection with scattered tstms are occurring S
of 22N W of 92W. Scattered heavy showers and tstms are in the E
Gulf of Campeche S of 20N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Trailing moisture associated with tropical storm Earl along with a
divergent environment in the upper levels support scattered
showers and isolated tstms W of 77W. Over the north-central
Caribbean, a tropical wave support scattered heavy showers and
tstms across Hispaniola and adjacent waters. A second tropical
wave has its axis just east of the Lesser Antilles with scattered
showers and tstms associated with it already affecting the NE
Caribbean waters. Please refer to the tropical waves section for
more details. Mainly moderate to locally fresh trades cover the
Caribbean tonight. Showers are forecast to persist in the north-
central and northeast Caribbean during the weekend associated with
the westward moving tropical waves.

...HISPANIOLA...

A tropical wave starting to move into the central Caribbean support
scattered heavy showers and tstms across Hispaniola and adjacent
waters tonight. A second tropical wave currently moving across the
Lesser Antilles, will bring more showers to the Island the rest of
the weekend. Please refer to the tropical waves section for more
details.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Atlantic is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1021 mb
high near 27N55W. The surface ridge will persist into the
weekend. The northern portion of a pair of tropical waves will
move through the SW N Atlantic north of the Greater Antilles
through Sunday morning. Two other tropical waves will cross the
central and eastern tropical Atlantic over the weekend. Please
refer to the tropical waves section for more details.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
RAMOS
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