[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051752
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
152 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Earl is centered near 18.6N 94.6W at 05/1800 UTC
or about 30 nm north of Coatzacoalcos, Mexico and about 100 nm
east-southeast of Veracruz, Mexico moving west at 9 kt. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gust to 45 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Please see the latest NHC
Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC and the full forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details. Earl is
moving along the coastline of south Mexico. The main threat from
Earl continues to be heavy rains over a large portion of Central
America and southeastern Mexico. These rains could result in life-
threatening flash floods and mud slides. Numerous moderate
convection is south of 21N west of 93W. Numerous showers and
isolated thunderstorms are elsewhere south of 23N west of 91W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave remains inland over Africa along 14W, expected to
move offshore over the next 24 hours.

A tropical wave is over the eastern tropical Atlantic with an axis
that extends from near 17N30W to 05N31W, moving westward at around
20 kt over the past 24 hours. This wave is embedded in an area of
high moisture...and is helping to enhance convection along the
monsoon trough.

A tropical wave is over the central tropical Atlantic with an axis
that extends from near 20N55W to 08N57W, moving westward at around
20 to 25 kt over the past 24 hours. This wave is depicted well in
700 mb streamlines in model fields, and coincides with the
greatest poleward extent of convection in the area. Isolated
moderate convection is within 240 nm west and 90 nm east of the
wave axis.

A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean with an axis that
extends from near 21N67W to 10N68W, moving westward at around 20
kt over the past 24 hours. This wave is embedded in a surge of
deep moisture, and is subtly depicted in 700 mb model streamlines.
Scattered thunderstorms are within 180 nm of either side of the
wave axis, including over Puerto Rico.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east tropical
Atlantic near 19N16W and continues along 13N20W to 09N30W to
09N36W where the ITCZ begins and continues to 12N53W. Scattered
moderate convection are from 05N to 12N between 13W and 33W.
Isolated moderate convection is from 05N to 10N between 33W and
48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Tropical Storm Earl is affecting the southwestern Gulf south of
23N this afternoon. Please refer to the special features section
for more details. A surface trough is over the northeastern Gulf,
extending from near 28N89W to 31N84W. This trough and upper level
diffluence supports scattered to numerous thunderstorms from within
180 nm south and southeast of the surface trough to the northern
Gulf coast. A weak ridge axis extends form central Florida to the
central Gulf, then to near the Texas/Louisiana border. Variable
gentle to moderate winds cover the northeastern Gulf. Light to
gentle winds cover the remainder of the Gulf north of 25N.
Moderate easterly winds cover the southeastern Gulf. Moderate to
fresh easterly winds extend well north of Earl from 22N to 25N
over the southwestern Gulf. Over the next 24 hours Earl will move
inland over Mexico, with waning affects over the southwestern
Gulf. The trough over the northeastern Gulf will persist with
convection.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A diffluent environment over the northwestern Caribbean supports
scattered moderate convection and numerous showers from 13N to
21N west of 77W, and isolated moderate convection south of 13N
west of 81W. A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean,
including Puerto Rico. Please refer to the tropical waves section
for more details. Mainly moderate to locally fresh trades cover
the Caribbean this afternoon, except light to gentle over the
southwestern Caribbean and southeastern Caribbean south of 12N.
Over the next 24 hours convection is expected to persist over the
northwestern Caribbean. Convection will spread over the central
Caribbean associated with the tropical wave. Another tropical wave
will cross the Lesser Antilles tonight and Saturday with
convection.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are spreading across the
Dominican Republic today ahead of a tropical wave. Showers and
thunderstorms will increase in coverage over Hispaniola through
tonight as the tropical wave crosses the island.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Atlantic is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1026
mb high east of the Azores with a ridge axis extending through
a 1021 mb high near 27N54W, continuing west across central
Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. The surface ridge will persist
into the weekend. The northern portion of a pair of tropical
waves will move through the southwest Atlantic north of the
Greater Antilles through Saturday night. Two other tropical waves
will cross the central and eastern tropical Atlantic over the
weekend. Please refer to the tropical waves section for more
details.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
LATTO
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