[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030547
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT WED AUG 03 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Earl is centered near 16.4N 83.0W at 03/0300 UTC
or about 304 nm ESE of Belize City moving W at 14 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous strong convection is off
the coast of Honduras from 15N-17N between 82W-84W. Clusters of
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere
over the NW Caribbean and Central America from 13N-21N between
79W-92W. See latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/ WTNT35 KNHC and the full
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends from 18N32W
to 06N33W moving west 25 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave
coincides with a 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models.
Wave is embedded within a low-amplitude surge of moisture with
Saharan dry air and dust NW of the wave, as seen on the SSMI
Total Precipitable Water Imagery. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is west of the wave axis from 05N-11N between 33W-
38W.

Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends from
18N45W to 07N47W moving west at 10 to 15 kt over the past 24
hours. The wave coincides with a 700 mb trough as depicted in
the global models and is embedded within a surge of moisture as
seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water Imagery. Isolated
moderate convection is from 05N-13N between 43W-52W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 13N17W to 11N30W to 10N37W to 12N44W. The ITCZ
begins west of a tropical wave near 10N50W and continues to the
coast of South America near 09N61W. Besides the convection
mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered showers are
from 08N-11N between 52W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge axis is over the northern Gulf of Mexico along
30N from N florida to E Texas. Further south, the leading edge
of precipitation from T.S. Earl has reached the Yucatan Channel
and is spreading west. 10-15 kt easterly winds are noted over
the Gulf. Scattered moderate convection is over S Florida and
the Straits of Florida from 23N-27N E of 83W. Elsewhere,
scattered moderate convection is just entering the eastern Bay
of Campeche also due to the leading edge of precipitation from
T.S. Earl. In the upper levels...an upper level high is centered
over the NW Gulf near 29N94W. A small upper level low is
centered over the N Bahamas near 27N79W enhancing the nocturnal
convection over S Florida. Expect over the next 24 hours for an
increase of convection over the SE Gulf, and the Yucatan
Peninsula due to T.S. Earl.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The prime focus tonight is T.S. Earl moving through the NW
Caribbean. See above. Elsewhere, 15-25 kt tradewinds are over
the E Caribbean Sea. Scattered moderate convection is over the
SW Caribbean, Panama, and Costa Rica, from 08N-11N between 77W-
86W. In the upper levels, an upper level high is centered S of
the Cayman Islands near 17N82W. Further east, an upper level low
is centered over the the E Caribbean near 15N62W with strong
subsidence producing fair weather E of 70W.

...HISPANIOLA...

Currently, mostly fair weather is over Hispaniola. Expect
scattered showers Wed afternoon and evening during maximum
heating hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered moderate convection is over the N Bahamas from 24N-27N
between 77W-80W mostly due the small upper level low centered
near 27N79W. A 1030 mb high is centered over the eastern
Atlantic near 34N28W with a ridge axis extending west to N
Florida. Two tropical waves are over the tropical Atlantic. See
above. Also of note in the upper levels, a large upper level low
is centered over the central Atlantic near 29N54W enhancing
showers. Expect the tropical waves to move west with convection
for the next several days.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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