[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030004
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
804 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Earl is centered near 16.4N 81.5W at 02/2100 UTC
or about 174 nm S of Grand Cayman moving W at 14 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous strong convection and
scattered tstms are from 14N-19N between 77W-83W. See latest NHC
Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/
WTNT35 KNHC and the full forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave extends from 10N-19N with axis near 28W, moving W
at 25 kt within the last 24 hours. Even though the wave is in a
favorable deep layer wind shear environment, Saharan dry air and
dust are engulfing the wave, thus hindering the development of
deep convection. CIRA LPW imagery from surface to 850 mb show dry
air intrusion west of the wave axis. Isolated showers are possible
from 10N-18N between 26W and 32W.

Tropical wave extends from 12N-20N with axis near 44W, moving W
at 15 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave is in a region of neutral
deep layer wind shear while enhanced Meteosat imagery show some
dry air east of its axis. However, CIRA LPW imagery from surface
to 850 mb show the wave is embedded in a moderate moist
environment that along with a diffluent environment aloft west of
its axis support scattered showers from 15N-19N between 44W and
49W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from near 16N16W to 11N28W to 12N40W
to 10N50W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
10N50W to the coast of Venezuela near 09N60W. Aside from
convection associated with the tropical waves...widely scattered
moderate convection is from 04N-11N between 31W-38W and from
04N-11N between 41W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level anticyclonic circulation is centered over the lower
Mississippi River valley near 31N89W, which is providing much of
the Gulf with NE to E flow aloft maintaining an overall stable
environment. An upper level low over the western Bay of Campeche
supports isolated showers in the SW basin S of 21N W of 93W. On
the SE basin, an elongated upper level low support heavy showers
and tstms across southern Florida, the Florida straits and the
Yucatan Channel. Heavy showers and tstms are also over the
Yucatan Peninsula extending 60 nm off the coastline. This
convection is associated with the outer rainbands of Tropical
Storm Earl, which is currently located in the NW Caribbean. See
special features for more details. At the surface...a ridge axis
extends from the SW North Atlc region along 25N to the Texas coast
generating light to moderate NE to E winds. Tropical Storm Earl
will approach the Yucatan peninsula and coast of Belize by
Wednesday night tracking W-NW into the SW Gulf waters by Thursday
night into Friday morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The primary focus is Tropical Storm Earl currently tracking W
across the NW Caribbean. See special features section for more
details on Earl. Rainbands from Earl are generating heavy showers
and scattered tstms W of 85W. In the SW basin, a 1010 mb low
centered near 10N78W connects with the monsoon trough and support
scattered to isolated showers S of 11N. For wind information
associated with Earl see the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.
Otherwise, fresh to strong winds are from 12.5N to 20N between 71W
and 80W with seas to 10 ft. Moderate trades are east of 71W. Earl
is expected to approach the Yucatan peninsula and coast of Belize
by Wednesday night bringing numerous showers and scattered
tstms...and potentially localized flooding and mud slides to
portions of Honduras...Guatemala...Belize...and the Yucatan
peninsula during the week.

...HISPANIOLA...

Currently...fair weather and mostly clear skies prevail and are
expected to continue tonight as an upper level ridge is in the
vicinity of the island providing strong dry air subsidence. Dust
and hazy conditions are also being reported across the Island. On
Wednesday, a middle level low will move across Hispaniola and is
expected to support showers during the afternoon and evening
hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak upper level low is centered E of central Florida extending
SW to the SE Gulf of Mexico. This low aloft along with abundant
moisture in the far SW Atlc support scattered showers and tstms S
of 29N W of 75W and within 60 nm off the norther coast of Cuba.
Otherwise, the remainder of the region is under the influence of
a surface ridge anchored by a 1028 mb high centered SW of the
Azores Islands.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
RAMOS
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